Stage 5 of the ZLM Tour is a 182.7 km flat circuit finishing back in Waalwijk, making it a near-certain bunch sprint conclusion. With no significant climbs to fracture the peloton, the stage rewards pure speed and the ability of a team to control the final kilometres and position their sprinter. It is the closing stage of this Dutch 2.1 stage race, meaning teams will be fully committed to delivering their fastest men to the line.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jason Tesson is the complete package for a flat bunch sprint: a win in stage 2 of the Tour Poitou-Charentes, multiple top-3s in analogous races, and five top-10s across similar-profile events in the past 90 days mark him out as the most in-form sprinter in this field. He is the natural favourite.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Jason Tesson is the standout favourite for this flat bunch sprint finale: he won stage 2 of the Tour Poitou-Charentes in similar-profile racing recently, has two top-3s and five top-10s in analogous races over the last 90 days, and ranks among the most explosive pure sprinters in this field. His consistency across multiple sprint opportunities makes him the rider to beat in Waalwijk.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Danny van Poppel and Max Walscheid are both legitimate threats. Van Poppel won stage 5 of the Sibiu Cycling Tour recently and has a powerful team behind him, while Walscheid's top-3 earlier in this ZLM Tour is the clearest signal that he is flying at exactly the right moment.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Danny van Poppel arrives with a win on stage 5 of the Sibiu Cycling Tour and three top-5s in similar-profile races, demonstrating sharp sprint form. He is one of the highest-rated sprinters in this field and has the Red Bull–BORA train at his disposal to deliver him in position.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Max Walscheid has been one of the most active sprinters in comparable races recently, collecting a top-3 and four top-10s, and he already has a top-3 finish from an earlier stage of this very ZLM Tour. That in-race evidence on this exact route gives him real 3-star standing.
★★
Dark Horses
Mathias Vacek, Gerben Thijssen, and Héctor Álvarez fill the dark-horse tier. Vacek's stage win in the ZLM Tour ITT proves his current form on this exact race, Thijssen brings Alpecin sprint firepower with recent comparable results, and Álvarez has a top-5 already in this edition to back up his recent similar-profile pedigree.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Gerben Thijssen has a top-5 finish in similar-profile racing over the last 90 days and is one of the sharper sprinters in the Alpecin-Premier Tech line-up, which also has Jonas Rickaert available for lead-out support. His speed profile suits a flat, bunch-sprint finish perfectly.
Lidl-Trek Future
Lidl-Trek Future
Héctor Álvarez has two top-5s in similar-profile races recently and has already registered a top-5 in this ZLM Tour, indicating he is in excellent current form on this exact course and in this field. That combination of in-race evidence and recent comparable results earns him dark-horse status.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mathias Vacek won stage 1 of this ZLM Tour, which is the strongest single in-race signal available, and also won a similar-profile stage recently. Although that victory came in an ITT rather than a bunch sprint, his all-round quality and current race momentum make him a genuine dark horse on the final flat stage.
★
Ones to Watch
Nils Eekhoff, Lionel Taminiaux, Anthony Turgis, and Simon Dehairs are the outsiders worth monitoring. Turgis is the most consistently placed of the four over the past 90 days, while Eekhoff and Dehairs represent teams with the infrastructure to set up a sprint. Any of them could profit if the favourites neutralise each other or a crash disrupts the lead-out trains.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Anthony Turgis is one of the most experienced riders in flat and punchy racing, accumulating six top-10s in similar-profile races over the last 90 days without converting to a win — suggesting he is consistently competitive but needs the right finale to go one better here.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Lionel Taminiaux has shown up in similar-profile races with a top-10 and has enough pure sprint ability to threaten in a reduced bunch. His presence in a stage-race sprint suggests Lotto Intermarché will have him as an option at the finish.
Picnic PostNL
Picnic PostNL
Nils Eekhoff has a top-10 in similar-profile racing and possesses solid sprint credentials alongside strong hills and cobbles values that suit the Dutch terrain. He is worth monitoring as an attacking or late-surge option if the bunch sprint breaks down.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Simon Dehairs has a top-10 in similar-profile recent racing and is a capable sprinter for Alpecin-Premier Tech, a team with multiple fast men and strong lead-out options in this race. He is one to watch if the sprint shapes up chaotically and allows a slightly lower-profile rider to profit.
Verdict
Jason Tesson enters as the clear top favourite, backed by recent sprint race wins and consistent top-result form in similar conditions; Danny van Poppel and Max Walscheid are the most dangerous challengers, with the latter already having shown his pace earlier in this very race.