Stage 10 of the 2026 Vuelta a España runs 184.7 kilometres from Alcaraz to Elche de la Sierra, finishing atop a hilly summit in the mountainous interior of southern Spain. The profile is classified as hilly with a hill finish, favouring riders who combine strong climbing with the ability to accelerate repeatedly on punchy gradients. At 2.UWT level inside a Grand Tour, the quality of the field is exceptional.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Tadej Pogacar is in a class of his own in this race. Three stage victories already — including stage 1, stage 4, and stage 6 — alongside relentless top finishes make him the unquestioned favourite. On a hilly summit finish, his combination of explosive power and superior hills ability is almost impossible to match in this field.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Tadej Pogacar has been utterly dominant in this Vuelta, winning stage 1 (ITT), stage 4, and stage 6, with four top-3 finishes in as many attempts. His hills ability is the best in the field and recent similar-profile form — including a win at stage 10 of the Tour de France — makes him the overwhelming favorite for this hilltop finish.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Matthew Brennan and Richard Carapaz represent the most credible threats to Pogacar. Brennan has been sensational, winning twice in this race already, while Carapaz brings pedigree and consistent recent form on similar terrain with multiple top-3 performances. Either could take the stage if Pogacar has an off day or is isolated.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Matthew Brennan has been the revelation of this Vuelta, winning stage 2 and stage 5 and hitting the top 5 in both of his finishes, making him arguably the form rider of the race behind Pogacar. He also won stage 1 and stage 4 of the Vuelta a Burgos in similar-profile racing recently, confirming this is no fluke.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Richard Carapaz possesses top-tier climbing and hills ability and has posted three top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently, showing consistent podium-level form on terrain just like this. He remains one of the most dangerous pure climbers in the peloton on a hilly finish.
★★
Dark Horses
Oscar Onley, Mattias Skjelmose, and Enric Mas form a strong second tier. Onley's recent win at the Vuelta a Burgos on similar terrain is the key data point; Skjelmose has shown genuine consistency inside this Vuelta; and Mas brings home-road motivation and elite climbing. All three could feature in a reduced front group on the final climb.
Movistar
Movistar
Enric Mas is one of the strongest climbers in this field and is racing on home roads, which historically brings out his best performances. Two top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently suggest he retains the form to challenge on this hilltop finish.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mattias Skjelmose recorded two top-10 finishes in this Vuelta already, showing solid adaptation to the race's demands, and has posted a top-3 and multiple top-10s in similar-profile races recently. His hills ability is elite and he has the versatility to compete on a finish like this.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Oscar Onley won stage 2 of the Vuelta a Burgos in similar conditions recently, demonstrating he can compete at the sharp end on punchy, hilly finishes. His hills profile is among the strongest outside the top tier, and INEOS can control the race to set him up.
★
Ones to Watch
Ben Tulett, Finn Fisher-Black, Axel Laurance, and Tobias Halland Johannessen are the ones to watch from further back. All four have strong recent records on similar terrain, and on a stage where the race may fracture on the final ascent, any one of them could sneak into a top-five or better if conditions play in their favour.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance has been one of the busiest performers in similar conditions recently, notching five top-5 finishes and seven top-10s, showing he is consistently near the front on hilly terrain. His hills ability is strong for his age and he could sneak into a late break.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Ben Tulett has quietly built two top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently and is a strong hills rider with good climbing ability. He is capable of a surprise result if the front group splinters on the final climb.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Finn Fisher-Black has shown remarkable consistency in similar-profile races, recording two top-3s and a remarkable eight top-10s recently. He is an underrated threat on a hilly finish and Red Bull - BORA will be looking for opportunities after a quiet race so far.
Tobias
Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen has a top-3 and multiple top-10s in similar-profile races recently, and his climbing ability backs up that form on paper. Uno-X Mobility have shown ambition in this Vuelta and Johannessen represents their best card on a finish like this.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar, already the winner of three stages in this Vuelta, is the commanding favourite and would be a major surprise if beaten. Matthew Brennan and Richard Carapaz are the most likely threats should anything disrupt the Slovenian's rhythm.