Stage 10 of the 2026 Volta a Portugal covers 142.60 km from Paredes to the summit finish at Mondim de Basto (Senhora da Graça), one of the most iconic climbs on the Portuguese calendar. The mountain profile ruthlessly filters out all but the purest climbers, ensuring a small select group will contest the stage win near the top. With the race class at 2.1, points and GC implications make this a fiercely contested day.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Alexis Guérin is in the form of his life, winning his one comparable climbing race this season and holding a 73 climbing rating. No other rider in this field combines his recent winning pedigree with elite pure-climbing numbers, making him the near-certain pick for the CycloDraft top selection.
Anicolor
Anicolor
Alexis Guérin is the standout favorite heading into Senhora da Graça, boasting a perfect 1.0 average position in recent climbing races and a climbing stat of 73. His winning form in the only similar-profile race he has entered in the last 90 days makes him the clear pick to take the stage.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Artem Nych and Pedro Silva both converted their recent climbing-race appearances into podium finishes, giving them proven credentials beyond raw stats alone. Nych's 73 climbing rating and 70 TT score signal well-rounded ability, while Silva's local-race knowledge and sprint edge (68) add tactical intrigue.
Anicolor
Anicolor
Artem Nych recorded a podium finish (2nd) in his only comparable climbing race this season and carries a solid climbing rating of 73. He also benefits from a strong TT score of 70, suggesting he can manage his effort well across varied terrain to the summit.
Boavista
Boavista
Pedro Silva surprised with a 3rd-place finish in a similar mountain finish recently, demonstrating real climbing ability despite a rating of 70. Racing for Boavista on home soil adds motivation, and his consistent sprint score of 68 could prove decisive in a small group.
★★
Dark Horses
Murguialday's three top-10s across similar races provide the broadest sample of consistent climbing form in this field, justifying dark-horse status despite his 72 rating. Pericas and De la Calle each possess a 73 climbing score and have shown they can produce when it matters, making all three credible threats for the podium.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Adrià Pericas (climbing 73) has shown steady form across three comparable races, collecting two top-10 finishes and averaging 10th place. UAE Emirates backing gives him logistical support, and his well-rounded stats suggest he can survive a selective mountain finish.
Burgos
Burgos
Hugo de la Calle carries a climbing rating of 73 and has shown consistency over three similar-profile races, including a best finish of 4th. His sprint score of 67 is among the higher values for pure climbers in this field, giving him a final-kilometer edge.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Jokin Murguialday has been the most consistently active climber in recent form, posting three top-10 results in similar-profile races with a best of 4th. His climbing rating of 72 and team support from Euskaltel-Euskadi make him a reliable dark horse.
★
Ones to Watch
Peña and García Pierna share the field's highest climbing rating of 74 but lack the recent results to warrant a higher tier, making them intriguing value picks. González (6th in form) and Duarte (9th in form) are genuine top-10 candidates whose recent performances show they can handle mountain finishes at this level.
Illes Balears
Illes Balears
Abner González finished 6th in his one similar-profile race this season, showing genuine climbing credentials despite a rating of 68. He is an intriguing outsider who could punch above his stat line if the race is ridden at a controlled tempo.
Burgos
Burgos
Carlos García Pierna shares the 74 climbing rating but has struggled to convert it into results, averaging 27.5 across two similar races. He remains one to watch as an outsider with the physical tools to surprise on a mountain finish.
Credibom / LA Alumínios
Credibom / LA Alumínios
Emanuel Duarte placed 9th in his only comparable climbing race and holds a solid 68 climbing rating with a useful 66 TT score. Racing for Credibom on a Portuguese mountaintop finish, home-crowd energy could help him into the top 10.
Efapel
Efapel
Jesús David Peña tops the climbing stat table at 74, joint-highest in the field, and placed 10th in his one similar-profile race this season. If he can translate raw ability into race-day execution on the Senhora da Graça ascent, a top-10 is well within reach.
Verdict
Alexis Guérin is the firm favorite after winning his only recent mountain-finish race with a perfect average position of 1.0, while Artem Nych and Pedro Silva provide the strongest challenges as proven podium finishers on similar terrain.