Stage 4 of the 2026 Volta a Portugal covers 182.2 km from Beja to Elvas with a hilly profile leading to a flat finish. The terrain will favour puncheurs who can survive the undulations and then contest a reduced sprint or a small breakaway, rather than pure climbers or flat sprinters. At 2.1 level, the race attracts competitive Iberian and European squads making every move count in the overall battle.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Alexis Guérin stands alone at the top, pairing a 73 hills rating with a 9.0 average position and a 2nd-place finish in similar races over the last 90 days. No other rider in this field combines such strong raw stats with proven recent results on comparable terrain.
Anicolor
Anicolor
Alexis Guérin tops the hills stat at 73 and backs it up with a 9.0 average finishing position in similar-profile races, including a podium finish (best of 2nd). His form is the most consistent combination of raw ability and recent results in this field.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Jesús David Peña and Pedro Silva form a compelling second tier. Peña has actually won a hills-profile race recently and holds the highest climbing stat (74) among the top-rated group, while Silva's 7.0 average position is the best in the entire startlist despite a slightly lower hills rating.
Efapel
Efapel
Jesús David Peña shares the top hills rating of 73 and has actually won a similar-profile race in the last 90 days, averaging 14.7 across three outings. His climbing stat of 74 is the highest among the top hills-rated riders, giving him an edge on any punchy climbs before the flat finish.
Boavista
Boavista
Pedro Silva leads all riders in recent form with a remarkable 7.0 average finishing position across three hilly races, including a best of 4th. His hills stat of 70 is slightly lower but his consistency and local knowledge as a Portuguese rider make him a genuine podium threat.
★★
Dark Horses
Fábio Costa, Txomin Juaristi and Lucas Lopes offer different risk-reward profiles. Costa's form is excellent (9.3 average, two top-10s), Juaristi has the raw stats ceiling (73 hills) with a strong team behind him, and Lopes provides a podium pedigree backed by four races of data.
Boavista
Boavista
Fábio Costa has the second-best average position (9.3) in similar-profile races over the last 90 days, posting two top-10 finishes. His hills stat of 69 is lower, but form clearly speaks louder here.
Efapel
Efapel
Lucas Lopes averages 23.2 in similar races but has a podium to his name (best of 3rd) and a hills stat of 71 backed by a climbing rating of 72. Four races of data give extra confidence in his profile for this terrain.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Txomin Juaristi carries a hills rating of 73 — joint highest in the field — and brings Euskaltel-Euskadi's numerical strength to bear. Despite an average position of 41.8 recently, his raw stat ceiling makes him dangerous on a hilly day.
★
Ones to Watch
Hugo Nunes showed he can win on this terrain in the last 90 days and is the value pick of the outsiders. Carlos García Pierna and Hugo de la Calle both bring high hills and climbing ratings with large recent-form datasets, while Adrià Pericas adds UAE Emirates firepower as a potential protected rider or co-leader.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Adrià Pericas brings UAE Emirates depth with a hills rating of 72 and a climbing stat of 73. He has one top-10 finish across four similar-profile races and benefits from racing alongside Rui Oliveira in a strong squad.
Burgos
Burgos
Carlos García Pierna has a hills rating of 72 and a climbing stat of 74, the joint-highest climbing figure among all startlist riders. Eleven races of similar-profile data show he is a regular participant even if top results have been elusive.
Credibom / LA Alumínios
Credibom / LA Alumínios
Hugo Nunes won a similar-profile race in the last 90 days and has a podium on his recent form sheet. His hills stat of 68 is modest but his results prove he can punch above his weight on undulating terrain.
Burgos
Burgos
Hugo de la Calle has a hills rating of 72 and 13 similar-profile races in recent form, giving the most robust dataset in the field. He has a podium (best of 2nd) and four top-10 finishes, showing he can deliver on the right day.
Verdict
Alexis Guérin is the top favourite, combining the joint-highest hills rating in the field with a podium in similar recent races and the best all-round form profile. Jesús David Peña and Pedro Silva are the closest challengers, with a recent win and the best average finishing position respectively.