Stage 4 of the Tour of Magnificent Qinghai covers 195.7 km from Huzhu to Guide on a mountain profile ending in a flat finish, rewarding pure climbers who can also handle a high-speed finale. Held at altitude on the Qinghai plateau, the stage demands both climbing endurance and the ability to read a fast, tactical finish. The 2.Pro classification ensures a competitive but not Grand Tour-level field.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Henok Mulubrhan stands alone as the top pick, averaging 9.0 across two recent climbing-profile races with two top-10 finishes. His Climbing stat of 73 is competitive, and his upcoming appearance at the Vuelta signals he is in peak mid-season condition. No other rider in the field combines his form and fitness profile so convincingly.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Henok Mulubrhan tops the recent form table with an average position of 9.0 across two climbing-profile races, backed by a solid Climbing stat of 73. His consistent top-10 finishes and upcoming Grand Tour schedule (Vuelta) signal peak form heading into this stage.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Jon Agirre and Mikel Bizkarra are the two most credible challengers, each with multiple top-10 results in climbing races over the past 90 days. Agirre's five-race sample and best finish of 6th give him a consistent baseline, while Bizkarra's 74 Climbing stat gives him a slight raw edge. Either could push Mulubrhan on a hard mountain day.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Jon Agirre has the second-best recent form average at 13.2 across five climbing races, including three top-10 results and a best finish of 6th. His Climbing stat of 73 and consistent performances make him a genuine podium threat.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Mikel Bizkarra averages 14.0 across four similar-profile races with two top-10s and a best of 7th, supported by a Climbing rating of 74. The Euskaltel-Euskadi climber has the engine for a mountain stage like this.
★★
Dark Horses
Cristián Rodríguez, Simon Carr, and Alex Tolio form a dangerous middle tier. Rodríguez's Climbing stat of 77 is the highest in the field and his Vuelta schedule confirms ambition, while Carr and Tolio have demonstrated solid recent form in similar races. All three have the tools to break into the top five if the race plays out favorably.
Bardiani CSF
Bardiani CSF
Alex Tolio averages 16.0 across five climbing races with two top-10s and a best of 9th, making him one of the more consistent performers in this field. His Climbing stat of 72 is competitive in the middle tier of the startlist.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Cristián Rodríguez leads the startlist in Climbing (77) and has recorded seven recent climbing-profile races with a 14.7 average and a best of 5th. His upcoming Vuelta slot confirms his current condition and ambition.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Simon Carr (Climbing 72) has a 16.5 average across two similar-profile races with a best of 6th, and his strong TT stat of 71 adds versatility on a mountain stage with a flat finish. Limited sample size is the only caveat.
★
Ones to Watch
Jan Castellon, Eric Fagúndez, Sylvain Moniquet, and Emanuel Buchmann round out the selections as outsiders worth monitoring. Castellon and Fagúndez have shown flashes of top-10 quality in recent climbing races, Moniquet's all-round stats suit the flat finish, and Buchmann's 76 Climbing rating is too high to ignore even if his current form is inconsistent.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Emanuel Buchmann carries the highest Climbing stat among Cofidis riders at 76, and though his recent form average is a disappointing 56.0, three appearances suggest he is using this race as a build-up block. His pedigree in mountain stages makes him a wildcard worth watching.
Burgos
Burgos
Eric Fagúndez (Climbing 72) averages 19.8 across four similar races with a best of 5th, showing he can challenge on the right day. His balanced Hills and TT stats support a strong ride on this mountain-to-flat profile.
Caja Rural
Caja Rural
Jan Castellon has a Climbing stat of 75 and seven recent climbing-profile races averaging 17.1 with three top-10s and a best of 7th. Solid across the board, but his lack of podiums keeps him in the outsider category.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Sylvain Moniquet holds a Climbing stat of 74 — second-highest in the field — and his Sprint (67) and TT (67) give him a well-rounded profile suited to a flat finish after a mountain stage. Recent form is modest but his raw card stats demand attention.
Verdict
Henok Mulubrhan is the clear favorite, combining the best recent form in the field with a strong Climbing stat and peak condition ahead of his Vuelta appearance. Jon Agirre and Mikel Bizkarra are the most likely challengers, while Cristián Rodríguez's class-leading stats make him dangerous if his current form matches his card rating.