Stage 3 of the Tour of Istanbul is an 86-kilometre circuit race starting and finishing in Fatih, classified as hilly with a flat finish — a profile that rewards attackers who can survive the climbs and still sprint or out-kick a small group at the line. The relatively short distance means the race could be explosive from the gun, with teams keen to establish breakaways early before the bunch reasserts control for a reduced sprint. No previous stages have been run yet, so form from similar-profile races in the past 90 days is the primary form guide.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Liam Slock stands alone at the top of our rankings. His win in stage 1 of the GP Gippingen is the only victory in a similar-profile race across the entire field in the last 90 days, and his hills profile is firmly among the elite in this startlist. He is the rider everyone else must follow.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Liam Slock is the standout pick for this hilly stage after winning stage 1 of the GP Gippingen in a similar-profile race recently — the only rider in the field with a victory on this type of terrain in the last 90 days. His hills profile is among the strongest in the peloton, making him the natural favorite heading into Fatih.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Javier Serrano and Emilien Jeannière are the two most credible threats to Slock. Serrano's pair of top-five finishes in similar terrain shows he knows how to position himself on hard days, while Jeannière's three top-ten results and elite hills rating underline his consistency. Both can contest the final from a reduced group.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Emilien Jeannière brings three top-ten results in similar-profile races and is one of the highest-rated riders in the hills category across the entire startlist. As an Epic-rarity card for TotalEnergies, he carries genuine podium expectations when the roads get demanding.
Polti
Polti
Javier Serrano has shown consistent ability on hilly terrain, recording two top-five finishes in similar-profile races recently. His hills profile is one of the better ones in this field, and he has the versatility to follow moves and contest a flat finish after a hilly day.
★★
Dark Horses
Mathis Le Berre, Marcin Budzinski, and Baptiste Vadic all carry top-ten finishes on similar-profile courses into this race. Le Berre and Budzinski add climbing strength to their hills profiles, while Vadic benefits from TotalEnergies' deep squad. Any of the three could slip into a winning move.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Baptiste Vadic has two top-ten finishes in similar-profile races recently, suggesting he handles this type of terrain competently. He is a useful asset for TotalEnergies and could benefit from the team's numerical strength in the final kilometres.
MBH Bank CSB
MBH Bank CSB
Marcin Budzinski brings a top-ten result in a similar-profile race recently and is one of the more complete hilly riders in the MBH Bank CSB roster. His solid hills profile and consistent form make him a reliable dark horse for a stage like this.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Mathis Le Berre has accumulated three top-ten finishes in similar-profile races recently, showing solid and consistent form on hilly terrain. He also possesses a strong climbing background that could prove useful if the race is animated before the flat finish.
★
Ones to Watch
Milan Menten, Fabien Doubey, Giovanni Lonardi, and Nicolò Buratti round out our selection as riders to watch. Menten and Lonardi have sprint tools for a flat finish, Doubey is among the best climbers in the field, and Buratti is a well-rounded hills rider representing a strong MBH Bank CSB team. None have recent results on similar terrain to back them up, but the profile suits each of them.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Fabien Doubey is among the most capable climbers in this startlist, pairing solid hills ability with genuine climbing strength. Despite blanking in similar-profile races recently, his all-round profile keeps him relevant on a stage that could suit breakaway specialists.
Polti
Polti
Giovanni Lonardi is an Epic-rarity rider who combines a respectable hills score with one of the highest sprint ratings in the field, giving him a strong finish tool if a reduced group arrives together. He has not cracked the top ten in similar races recently, but his raw speed makes him dangerous.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Milan Menten sits at the very top of the hills rankings and pairs that with a strong sprint, which suits a hilly stage ending in a flat finish well. He has raced on similar terrain multiple times recently without a result, but his profile makes him one to watch.
MBH Bank CSB
MBH Bank CSB
Nicolò Buratti joins his MBH Bank CSB teammates as one of the top-rated hills riders in the field and offers a balanced profile across sprinting and cobbles. With no stage races run yet and a hilly profile that suits his card, he is worth a speculative pick as an outsider.
Verdict
Liam Slock is the clear top favourite after his recent win in a similar-profile race, and he heads into Fatih with both the best recent results and the profile to match. Javier Serrano and Emilien Jeannière are the most dangerous challengers, each bringing multiple top results on comparable terrain.