Stage 1 of the Tour of Huangshan covers 120 kilometres from Wenfeng Park to the Huangshan District Government Square, classified as a hilly stage with a flat finish. The profile suggests the race will be whittled down on the punchy climbs before arriving at a reduced-group sprint or a late attack from a small breakaway, rewarding riders who combine hills strength with a finishing kick. As the opening stage of this 2.1-category race, it sets the tone for the overall battle and every team will be eager to make a statement.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Xabier Isasa stands alone at the top of the pre-race market. His win on stage 7 of the Volta a Portugal on a similar-profile stage, combined with further top-5 form on comparable terrain, gives him a concrete recent pedigree that no other rider in this field can match. His hills profile is excellent and Euskaltel-Euskadi has the squad depth to set the race up for him on the lumpy sections before the flat run-in.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Xabier Isasa is the standout pick for this opener: he arrives with a win on a similar-profile stage — stage 7 of the Volta a Portugal — and has backed that up with another top-5 in comparable terrain recently, making him the most convincing hills specialist in the field. His hills rating sits at the top of the Euskaltel-Euskadi roster and the hilly-with-flat-finish profile of this stage suits his ability to use the lumpy terrain and still contest a reduced sprint.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Eduardo Sepúlveda leads the entire field in hills suitability and is the kind of experienced puncheur who can dictate tempo on the climbs. Daniel Cavia Sanz pairs genuine recent form — three top-3 results on similar profiles — with a sprint advantage that becomes decisive on flat finishes. Either man is capable of winning if Isasa is isolated or mis-times his effort.
Burgos
Burgos
Daniel Cavia Sanz has been the most consistently dangerous rider in similar-profile races recently, posting three top-3 finishes and four top-10s without yet breaking through for the win. His Burgos team is well-represented and his sprint edge relative to other hills specialists makes him dangerous if a small group reaches the flat finish together.
Li Ning Star
Li Ning Star
Eduardo Sepúlveda leads the hills rankings across the entire startlist and is one of the most complete puncheurs in this field, with solid climbing to boot. No similar-profile results in the last 90 days are on record, but his profile is tailor-made for this terrain and Li Ning Star arrives as a strong collective unit.
★★
Dark Horses
Lorenzo Quartucci, Mathias Bregnhøj, and Hodei Muñoz form a credible second tier. Quartucci has the hills profile to match the race favourites and extensive recent racing on this terrain. Bregnhøj's versatility is an asset on a stage that mixes punchy climbs with a flat finish. Muñoz's recent top-3 on a similar profile is the concrete evidence that elevates him above the chasing pack.
Soudal Quick-Step DT
Soudal Quick-Step DT
Hodei Muñoz showed a top-3 finish in similar-profile racing recently and has reached the top-5 once, demonstrating genuine form on hilly terrain. Representing Soudal Quick-Step DT gives him a tactical edge, and his sprint is competitive enough to matter if the group is small at the flat finish.
Burgos
Burgos
Lorenzo Quartucci matches Sepúlveda atop the hills rankings and has raced extensively on similar profiles in the past 90 days, showing consistent engagement with this type of terrain. While he has yet to convert those appearances into top-3 results, his volume of experience and his hills ability make him a credible dark horse.
Terengganu
Terengganu
Mathias Bregnhøj is one of the most versatile riders in the Terengganu squad, combining strong hills attributes with a solid time trial base that helps on drag-out efforts between punchy climbs. No similar-profile wins recently, but his overall profile fits the stage well and he warrants attention.
★
Ones to Watch
Jordi López, Josh Burnett, Nicolás Alustiza, and Luke Mudgway are the ones to watch. López's recent top-5 and trio of top-10 finishes on similar terrain show he is competitive even if a win has not come yet. Burnett and Alustiza are protected by strong team structures that could free them for opportunistic moves. Mudgway's sprint punch adds an X-factor if a small breakaway reaches the flat finish intact.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Jordi López has three top-10 finishes on similar profiles in the past 90 days and one top-5, showing he belongs in the conversation on terrain like this. A breakthrough result remains elusive but he is a reliable accumulator in this type of race.
Burgos
Burgos
Josh Burnett pairs strong climbing with solid hills attributes, ranking among the better-rounded puncheurs on the Burgos roster. His recent similar-profile appearances have not yielded results yet, but in a team with multiple cards to play he could be freed to go on the attack.
Li Ning Star
Li Ning Star
Luke Mudgway brings a useful sprint punch to complement decent hills ability, and his sprint is among the sharpest of the hills-capable riders in this field — an advantage if the flat finish rewards a small breakaway group. Li Ning Star's collective strength could create the right scenario for him.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Nicolás Alustiza is a steady Euskaltel-Euskadi support option whose climbing and hills numbers are competitive in this field. He has raced similar terrain recently without a result to show, but his role in protecting Isasa could flip to leadership if the race splits.
Verdict
Xabier Isasa is the clear favourite on the back of his recent stage win at the Volta a Portugal on comparable terrain, while Daniel Cavia Sanz and Eduardo Sepúlveda stand as the most dangerous challengers if the race comes down to a select group at the line.