Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour of Guangxi is a 149.4 km loop departing and arriving in Chongzuo, rated as a hilly stage with a flat finish. The profile suggests the peloton will face enough elevation to create selection on the road before the terrain flattens out for the finale, rewarding riders who combine hills strength with a credible sprint or the ability to attack late. As a 2.UWT opener, teams will be eager to establish early momentum and test their rivals.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Paul Magnier stands alone at the top of this preview. Six victories in similar-profile races — including stage 1 of the Cyclassics Hamburg, stage 5 of the Deutschland Tour, and both opening stages of the Tour de Slovaquie — demonstrate a level of consistency in these conditions that no other rider in this field can match. His sprint is elite for this field and his hills rating gives him every chance of being present when it matters.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Paul Magnier is the standout favorite for this hilly, flat-finish stage after a remarkable recent run that includes wins in stage 1 of the Cyclassics Hamburg, stage 5 of the Deutschland Tour, both stages 1 and 2 of the Tour de Slovaquie, stage 5 of the CRO Race, and stage 1 of the Binche - Chimay - Binche — six victories in similar-profile races. His elite sprint underpins all of it, and his hills rating is more than sufficient to survive the rolling terrain before a bunch-style finish.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Olav Kooij and Tom Pidcock occupy the second tier for different reasons. Kooij has won twice recently on comparable profiles and leads a well-organised sprint train, making him the most dangerous challenger for Magnier if the finish comes down to a bunch kick. Pidcock, rated the best hills rider in this field, is the alternative scenario: if the climbs do real damage and the finish is contested by a smaller group, his versatility makes him a formidable finisher.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij brings exceptional sprint firepower to this flat-finish stage and has backed it up with wins in stage 1 of the Sparkassen Münsterland Giro and stage 1 of the Grand Prix d'Isbergues - Pas de Calais in similar conditions recently. He leads a strong Decathlon CMA CGM team that should be capable of controlling the finale for him.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Tom Pidcock is the top-rated hills rider in this field and has shown his versatility on hilly days with five top-3 finishes and a win in stage 1 of the GP Industria & Artigianato in similar-profile races recently. He could animate any late selection on the climbs and is dangerous if a reduced group contests the finish.
★★
Dark Horses
Louis Barré, Kévin Vauquelin, and Daniel Felipe Martínez form a credible dark-horse tier. Barré has two wins in similar conditions recently and is flying in current form. Vauquelin won on a comparable profile at the Giro d'Abruzzo and is supported by a strong INEOS team. Martínez took a stage victory at the CRO Race in similar terrain and has the all-round engine to profit from any race-splitting scenario.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Daniel Felipe Martínez picked up a win in stage 4 of the CRO Race recently on a similar profile and brings solid hills ability alongside a capable time trial engine. He is a versatile threat who can exploit any split on the climbs before the flat finish.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Kévin Vauquelin is among the best hills riders in this field and recently took a win in stage 4 of the Giro d'Abruzzo on a similar profile, adding four top-10s in comparable races. Backed by INEOS Grenadiers, he is well-positioned to feature in any reduced sprint or late attack.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Louis Barré has been in excellent recent form, winning stage 2 of the Deutschland Tour and stage 6 of the Tour de Pologne in similar conditions. He combines strong hills ability with the capacity to finish off in smaller groups, making him a genuine dark horse for a hilly stage with a flat run-in.
★
Ones to Watch
The one-star quartet covers the range from pure climbers to opportunistic sprinters. Narváez has the hills profile to feature in any selection but lacks recent comparable wins. Brenner and Meeus have both demonstrated consistent top-10 form in similar races without yet converting, making them threats if the scenario suits. Ayuso is the wildcard — his climbing pedigree is outstanding but this profile may ultimately favour the sprinters who survive the hills.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jhonatan Narváez is one of the strongest hills riders in the entire field and arrives fresh to the Tour of Guangxi with UAE Emirates support. He lacks the standout recent similar-profile wins of others but his all-round profile suits a hilly opener perfectly.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Jordi Meeus has been a constant presence in similar-profile finales with four top-3s and five top-5s recently, though he has yet to convert to a win in this stretch. His sprint is one of the most potent in this field if he can make it over the climbs in the lead group.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Juan Ayuso brings elite climbing ability and a strong all-round profile to this opener, making him a threat if the hills are enough to splinter the bunch ahead of the finish. His arrival as a confirmed Guangxi starter adds intrigue, though his recent similar-profile results leave room for others above him in the picks.
Tudor Pro Cycling
Tudor Pro Cycling
Marco Brenner has posted two top-3 finishes and five top-10s in similar-profile races recently without a win, showing consistent presence at finales. His hills ability is well-suited to a rolling stage that could thin the field before the flat conclusion.
Verdict
Paul Magnier is the clear favorite: his six wins in similar-profile races over the last 90 days are unmatched in this field, and his sprint is exceptional for a finish that should suit a slightly reduced group. Olav Kooij and Tom Pidcock lead the chasing pack, with Louis Barré and Kévin Vauquelin the most dangerous dark horses if the climbs create the right selection.