Stage 5 of the Tour of Britain is a 156-kilometre circuit starting and finishing in Earlston, classified as hilly with a flat finish — a profile that typically whittles the front group down before rewarding a punchy or fast finisher. The Scottish Borders terrain will apply selection on the climbs, but the flat run-in to the line means a small group of survivors will likely contest a reduced sprint. With four stages already completed, riders with demonstrated form in this edition carry a significant advantage.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Lewis Askey is the form rider of this race — his stage 1 win here proves he is tuned perfectly to this terrain and this field. With additional top-5 showings in similar-profile races behind him, he commands the top spot by a comfortable margin.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Lewis Askey is the standout favourite after winning stage 1 of this Tour of Britain, demonstrating he is in peak form on this exact parcours against this exact field. He also brings two top-5 finishes in similar-profile races in the past 90 days, confirming his ability to perform on hilly terrain with a flat finish.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Olav Kooij and Filippo Ganna represent the strongest challenges to Askey. Kooij's win at the Baloise Belgium Tour and his cluster of top finishes on similar courses in recent weeks make him a consistent threat, while Ganna's top-3 already bagged in this edition shows his legs are genuinely there.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Filippo Ganna has already shown his credentials in this edition with a top-3 finish, and he has backed that up with a top-5 in similar-profile races over the past 90 days. His all-round strength on undulating terrain makes him one of the most dangerous finishers in any reduced group.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij arrives as the form rider on similar courses, boasting a win in stage 4 of the Baloise Belgium Tour alongside five top-3s and six top-5s in comparable races recently. His ability to survive hills and explode in a reduced sprint makes him a genuine threat on a hilly stage with a flat finish.
★★
Dark Horses
Ilan Van Wilder, Jasper Stuyven, and Rick Pluimers occupy the dark-horse tier. Stuyven has already proven his form in this race with a top-5, Van Wilder brings Soudal firepower and recent similar-profile results, and Pluimers has been a steady accumulator of top-5s and top-10s on comparable courses.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Ilan Van Wilder is among the strongest hilly-terrain riders in this field and has recorded a top-5 in similar-profile races recently. Soudal Quick-Step's collective strength gives him excellent positional support into the final.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Jasper Stuyven has already posted a top-5 in this edition of the Tour of Britain, signalling that his legs are good right now. He is a seasoned and opportunistic classics-style rider well suited to a hilly stage with a flat run-in.
Tudor Pro Cycling
Tudor Pro Cycling
Rick Pluimers has been quietly consistent in similar-profile races recently, accumulating two top-5s and four top-10s. He is a solid hills-capable finisher who could benefit from Tudor's team tactics in a selective stage.
★
Ones to Watch
Tim Wellens, Xandro Meurisse, Alessandro Pinarello, and Tim Merlier are the ones to watch. Wellens and Meurisse carry strong similar-profile results and hilly pedigree; Pinarello has quietly posted strong finishes on comparable terrain; and Merlier — if he survives the hills — possesses a finishing kick that could devastate a tired group on the flat run-in to Earlston.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Alessandro Pinarello has been quietly effective on similar profiles, recording a top-3 and two top-5s in comparable races recently. As a home-team rider for NSN Cycling alongside stage winner Askey, he could benefit from a well-organised lead-out or a selective gruppetto.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Tim Merlier's recent form on similar courses is notable — three top-3s in the past 90 days — and if the hills are not severe enough to shed him, his finishing sprint is among the very best in this field. The main question is whether he can survive the selective terrain to contest the flat finale.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Tim Wellens is one of the most accomplished hilly-terrain riders in the UAE Emirates line-up and has a top-10 in similar-profile races in the past 90 days. A breakaway or a late selection could bring him into contention.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Xandro Meurisse has proven himself on similar courses with a top-3 and a top-5 recently, and his well-rounded hills profile suits the Earlston circuit perfectly. He is capable of punching above his seeding on the right day.
Verdict
Lewis Askey is the clear top favourite after his stage 1 victory at this Tour of Britain, with Olav Kooij and Filippo Ganna the most dangerous challengers based on their recent form on identical course profiles.