Stage 4 of the Tour of Britain runs 165.8 kilometres from Helmsley to Leyburn, finishing atop a genuine hill that is expected to reduce the peloton and favour punchy, versatile riders over pure sprinters. The North Yorkshire terrain demands a combination of resilience over repeated climbs and the ability to accelerate on a demanding finishing gradient. With no prior stages in this edition to reference, recent form on similar hilly profiles becomes the decisive selection factor.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Olav Kooij is in a class of his own among the contenders here. His win at stage 4 of the Baloise Belgium Tour and five top-3 finishes in similar-profile races over the last 90 days demonstrate he thrives exactly on this kind of hilly, punchy stage. Despite being primarily known as a sprinter, his recent record shows he can handle selective terrain and deliver when it counts.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij is the standout pick for this hilly stage finish, having claimed a win at stage 4 of the Baloise Belgium Tour and racking up five top-3s and six top-10s in similar-profile races recently. His ability to stay with reduced groups and deliver at the line makes him the clear favourite heading into Leyburn.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Ilan Van Wilder and Xandro Meurisse represent the strongest alternatives to Kooij. Van Wilder's all-round ability and Soudal Quick-Step's collective strength give him the platform to dictate how the finale unfolds, while Meurisse has the hill-finish pedigree and recent results to back a late attack. Either could capitalise if Kooij is isolated.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Ilan Van Wilder is one of the best all-round hill finishers in this field, with a top-5 and a top-10 in similar-profile races recently to back it up. His Soudal Quick-Step team adds tactical muscle, making him a genuine threat on this demanding finish.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Xandro Meurisse has shown he belongs on punchy finishes, posting a top-3 and a top-5 in similar-profile races over the past 90 days. One of the stronger hills specialists in this field, he has the profile to attack late on the Leyburn drag.
★★
Dark Horses
Lewis Askey, Rick Pluimers, and Alessandro Pinarello form a compelling second tier. Askey benefits from home-road knowledge racing for NSN Cycling, Pluimers has quietly accumulated a string of top-10s on similar terrain, and Pinarello's recent results in comparable races suggest he is in fine form heading into Yorkshire.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Alessandro Pinarello delivered a top-3 and two top-5s in similar-profile races recently, punching above his Rare rating. NSN Cycling could use him as a co-leader alongside Askey, and he clearly has the legs for this type of finish.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Lewis Askey has been consistently competitive on hilly terrain recently, with a top-3 and two top-5s in similar-profile races. Racing on home roads for NSN Cycling, local knowledge and strong recent form make him a credible dark horse.
Tudor Pro Cycling
Tudor Pro Cycling
Rick Pluimers has quietly built an impressive recent record on terrain like this, with four top-10s in similar-profile races. He tends to fly under the radar but has the hill-finish ability to trouble the favourites if the race splits.
★
Ones to Watch
Tim Wellens, Fabio Christen, Felix Großschartner, and Filippo Ganna are the wildcards. All four have registered recent top-10s on similar-profile races and carry strong hills credentials. Ganna is the most speculative inclusion, but his power output and a recent top-5 on hilly terrain suggest he should not be completely dismissed.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Fabio Christen posted two top-10s in similar-profile races recently and holds a strong hills profile within the Pinarello-Q36.5 squad. An interesting one to watch if a reduced group goes to the line.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Felix Großschartner is one of the more complete all-rounders in this field, combining solid hills and climbing ability, and registered a top-10 in similar-profile races. He could emerge as UAE Emirates' best placed rider on this stage.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Filippo Ganna is an unlikely looking outsider on a hilly stage but showed with a top-5 in similar-profile races that he can handle undulating finishes. His sheer power could see him survive a selective final if the pace doesn't go too deep.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Tim Wellens is among the top hills performers in this startlist on raw stats, and a top-10 in similar-profile races shows he can get results on terrain like this. A useful card if the race fragments on the climbs before Leyburn.
Verdict
Olav Kooij enters Leyburn as the top favourite on the back of a recent stage win and exceptional consistency on similar terrain, with Ilan Van Wilder and Xandro Meurisse the most dangerous challengers if the finish suits a select group.