Stage 4 of the 2026 Tour of Austria is a 170.5 km hilly circuit beginning and ending in Steyr, classified as a 2.1-level stage race. The hilly profile with a flat finish favors riders who can survive the punchy climbs and then contest a reduced bunch sprint or small-group finish. Teams with multiple options — UAE Emirates in particular — hold a structural advantage.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jan Christen (Hills 78) is the standout pick on raw stats and team strength. UAE Emirates' depth in Austria gives him ideal conditions to contest the finish, and as the top-rated hills rider in the field he is the clear favorite regardless of his modest recent average position.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jan Christen leads the startlist with the highest Hills rating (78) and is confirmed for this race. Despite a disappointing average position of 58.0 in recent hilly races, his top-end stat advantage and UAE Emirates team support make him the clear favorite on a hilly circuit finish back in Steyr.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Andrea Bagioli and Kevin Vermaerke represent the best combination of high Hills ratings and proven recent form. Bagioli's podium in similar races and Vermaerke's 19.2 average over six hilly outings — with a best of 4th — mark them as genuine threats to the top step.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli posts a Hills rating of 77 and has shown real form in similar profiles, averaging 28.6 with a podium and a best result of 3rd in recent hilly races. Lidl-Trek has numbers here and Bagioli is their most likely protected rider for a finish like this.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Kevin Vermaerke (Hills 75) is the standout form rider in this field, averaging 19.2 across six hilly races with a best of 4th. His consistent top-10 appearances and UAE Emirates support give him a strong case as the second-best pick on the day.
★★
Dark Horses
Carlos Rodríguez, Igor Arrieta, and Tibor del Grosso are the dark horses. Rodríguez has the pedigree and the highest climbing stat in the field; Arrieta is the only rider with a recent win in this profile; and del Grosso's 73 sprint rating makes him a genuine danger if a small group reaches the flat finish together.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Carlos Rodríguez carries a Legendary card and a Hills rating of 76, backed by a Climbing score of 77 — the highest climbing stat among any top contender. His recent hilly form (avg 42.5 over four races) is modest but the class and team infrastructure at INEOS make him dangerous.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Igor Arrieta (Hills 75) is the only rider in the field with a recent win in a similar-profile race and has posted three top-10s from ten starts, giving him the best strike rate among the active form riders. A UAE Emirates teammate to Christen, he could benefit from or contribute to a team-controlled finish.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Tibor del Grosso (Hills 75, Sprint 73) has the best sprint attribute among the hilly-profile specialists, making him well-suited to a flat finish after a hilly day. Eight races in similar conditions with a best of 4th and two top-10s shows he can deliver when the terrain suits.
★
Ones to Watch
Mollema, Konrad, Kämna, and Powless are all capable of featuring in the top group but face obstacles — age, team role, or lack of recent form data — that prevent a higher rating. Any of them could sneak a result if the race breaks apart on the climbs before the Steyr finish.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Bauke Mollema (Hills 76) brings veteran experience and a solid all-round profile (Climbing 73, TT 69) and is confirmed for the race. At 37, he rarely wins but consistently features in reduced groups on hilly circuits.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Lennard Kämna (Hills 74, Climbing 76) has the joint-highest climbing stat in the field and can attack on the hilly sections to thin out the group. Confirmed for this race and backed by a strong Lidl-Trek squad already featuring Bagioli and Mollema.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Neilson Powless (Hills 76, TT 74) brings the highest time trial score among the hills-rated contenders, useful if the day's finale involves any sustained effort. EF-EasyPost's leadership option on a day where the sprinters are filtered out.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Patrick Konrad (Hills 76, Sprint 70) is an Austrian road specialist who knows these roads well and has one of the highest sprint values among the top Hills-rated riders — useful for a flat bunch finish after the climbs.
Verdict
Jan Christen is the top favorite, carrying the field's highest Hills rating and UAE Emirates firepower behind him. Kevin Vermaerke and Andrea Bagioli are the key challengers, with Vermaerke's superior recent form making him the most dangerous threat to Christen's win.