Stage 3 of the 2026 Tour of Austria runs 189.5 km from Lienz to St. Johann Alpendorf, finishing atop a classic hilly ramp that rewards punchy climbers and strong hill finishers. As a 2.1-category stage race, the WorldTour and Continental squads are evenly mixed, creating tactical complexity. The uphill finish narrows the likely winner pool to riders with high Hills and Climbing ratings.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Benoît Cosnefroy is the standout pick — Hills 77, 2 recent wins, 4 podiums, and 7 top-10s in 15 similar races. His UAE Emirates team adds firepower, and his profile is tailor-made for the uphill finish at St. Johann Alpendorf.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Benoît Cosnefroy leads the field with a Hills rating of 77 and the strongest recent form among top-rated riders — 2 wins, 4 podiums, and 7 top-10s in 15 similar-profile races. His track record and UAE Emirates support make him the clear favourite on this hilly finish into St. Johann Alpendorf.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Jan Christen (Hills 78) and Andrea Bagioli (Hills 77) form a formidable two-rider challenge tier. Christen's raw stat is the highest in the field, while Bagioli's podium and top-3 finish in comparable races show he converts quality into results.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli matches Cosnefroy at Hills 77 and has shown genuine hill finish ability with a best result of 3rd in similar races. His recent podium in 6 comparable outings confirms consistent competitiveness for Lidl-Trek on terrain like this.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jan Christen tops the startlist with a Hills rating of 78 and is supported by UAE Emirates for a stage win opportunity. Although his recent average position in similar races is moderate, his raw stat ceiling makes him a dangerous finisher on a punchy uphill.
★★
Dark Horses
Igor Arrieta, Carlos Rodríguez, and Tibor del Grosso each bring a mix of race experience and statistical credentials. Arrieta has a win at this level, Rodríguez boasts the field's top Climbing stat, and del Grosso leads on recent race volume with a best of 4th.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Carlos Rodríguez holds a Legendary card with a Climbing stat of 77, the highest in the field, alongside a Hills rating of 76. INEOS Grenadiers provide strong team support and his profile suits a hillier finish, even if recent form in this race type has been inconsistent.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Igor Arrieta has the best win ratio among active contenders — 1 win and 2 podiums in 11 similar-profile races — with a Hills rating of 75. His recent average of 41.4 is dragged down by DNFs and large fields, but his best result of 1st signals genuine upside.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Tibor del Grosso has raced 8 similar-profile events recently, posting 2 top-10s and a best of 4th, making him one of the most experienced and in-form riders in this field over comparable terrain. His Hills rating of 75 and solid base stats back up the form data.
★
Ones to Watch
Laurens De Plus, Bauke Mollema, Patrick Konrad, and Neilson Powless round out the top 10 as riders with strong all-round profiles and team backing. Any of the four could exploit race dynamics or a late attack, but limited recent podium data keeps them in the outsider tier.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Bauke Mollema brings vast experience and a Hills rating of 76 for Lidl-Trek, with upcoming races suggesting he is race-sharp. He rarely dominates but consistently finishes well on hilly stage finishes.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Laurens De Plus carries a Hills rating of 76 and a Climbing stat of 76 — the joint-best climbing figure among the INEOS contingent — and could be used as a protected rider or surprise attacker on the final ascent.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Neilson Powless offers versatility with Hills 76, TT 74, and a solid Cobbles stat of 73 for EF-EasyPost. He is a capable all-rounder who can target a top result if the race breaks open on the final climb.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Patrick Konrad is a local specialist with a Hills rating of 76 and strong Austrian race knowledge. Racing for Lidl-Trek alongside Bagioli and Mollema, he could benefit from team tactics on familiar roads.
Verdict
Benoît Cosnefroy is the clear favourite, combining the top Hills rating with outstanding recent form including two wins in similar races. Jan Christen and Andrea Bagioli are his most dangerous rivals, with Carlos Rodríguez and Igor Arrieta capable of upsetting on the right day.