Stage 5 of the 2026 Tour de Pologne covers 218.9 km from Opole to the Kocierz Resort in a hilly profile culminating in a summit finish. The long route will test both endurance and pure climbing ability, with the final ascent to Kocierz Resort expected to shatter any remaining bunch and produce a select group finale. As a 2.UWT race, the field is stacked with top-level talent and team tactics will play a key role in setting up the final climb.
★★★★
Top Favorite
João Almeida is the undisputed favorite with a Hills score of 78 and Climbing of 80 — the highest climbing rating in the field. His Legendary card and UAE Emirates team strength make him near-impossible to overlook for a summit finish of this nature.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida tops the startlist with a Hills rating of 78 and an impressive Climbing score of 80, making him the standout favorite for this hilly finish at Kocierz Resort. His Legendary rarity card and well-rounded stats across all terrain types underline his class as the rider to beat.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Andrea Bagioli and Neilson Powless both combine solid Hills ratings (77 and 76 respectively) with proven recent form in similar-profile races, each having recorded wins. They are the most likely riders to challenge Almeida if the UAE train cannot fully control the final climb.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli posts a Hills score of 77 and is the most in-form hilly-terrain rider in the field, averaging 12.3 in similar-profile races over 7 outings with 1 win and 2 podiums. His consistent recent results make him a genuine threat for the top step.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Neilson Powless combines a Hills rating of 76 with excellent recent form — averaging 21.7 across 3 similar races with 1 win and a podium, including a best result of 1st. EF-EasyPost will look to him as a key GC threat on the Kocierz climb.
★★
Dark Horses
Santiago Buitrago, Jan Christen, and Finn Fisher-Black all boast strong Hills and Climbing profiles and have team backing to animate the race. Buitrago's climbing pedigree, Christen's youth and confirmed race focus, and Fisher-Black's podium form in similar races make all three realistic podium threats.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Finn Fisher-Black holds a Hills score of 76 and has shown genuine ability in similar terrain over 6 races, recording a best finish of 2nd and averaging 29.8. Red Bull-BORA's strong squad support and his upcoming World Championships road race appearance suggest he is in peak condition.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jan Christen matches the top Hills score of 78 alongside Almeida as a UAE Emirates teammate, giving the squad a powerful one-two combination on the final climb. His upcoming schedule including Il Lombardia signals he is being groomed for hilly campaigns, and his Epic rarity card reflects strong potential.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Santiago Buitrago carries a Hills score of 77 and a Climbing rating of 77, among the highest pure climbers in the peloton, and Bahrain Victorious will target this finish aggressively. No recent similar-race data limits certainty, but his profile is tailor-made for a day like this.
★
Ones to Watch
Schachmann, Scaroni, Vlasov, and Laurance round out the selections as riders with the stats and situational factors to sneak into the top 10 or beyond. Scaroni and Vlasov are confirmed starters targeting this race, while Laurance's sprint edge in a reduced group could prove decisive.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Aleksandr Vlasov posts a Hills score of 75 and a TT rating of 75, suggesting he can sustain effort on prolonged climbs and arrive at a finish in good shape. Red Bull-BORA's deep roster at this race gives him freedom to play his own card.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance brings a Hills score of 77 and the highest Sprint rating (73) among the top hills riders, making him dangerous if a small group contests the Kocierz finish. His 8 recent similar-race starts with a best of 4th show he can punch near the top on punchy terrain.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Christian Scaroni has a Hills score of 77 and is confirmed in the Tour de Pologne startlist per external notes, showing he is squarely targeting this race. His 10 recent similar-race outings with a best of 3rd and 1 podium highlight competitive consistency.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Maximilian Schachmann scores 77 in Hills and 76 in TT, giving him the all-round engine to threaten on a hilly stage finish. His Soudal Quick-Step support and race experience make him a credible outside bet.
Verdict
João Almeida, with his unmatched Hills and Climbing scores and Legendary status, is the clear top favorite to take the stage win at Kocierz Resort, while Andrea Bagioli and Neilson Powless represent the strongest challengers based on both raw stats and recent hilly-terrain form.