Stage 4 of the 2026 Tour de Pologne runs 176 km from Żagań to Karpacz, finishing atop a hilly summit that will test both punchy climbers and more classic stage-race riders. As a 2.UWT event, the field carries significant depth, and the uphill finish rules out pure sprinters in favour of riders with strong Hills and Climbing attributes. The stage is a key GC battleground midway through the race.
★★★★
Top Favorite
João Almeida is the undisputed top pick. He shares the field's best Hills rating (78) but separates himself with a Climbing score of 80, the highest of any rider in the startlist. His Legendary card status and confirmed TdP-then-Vuelta programme signal a rider in peak condition targeting results.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida leads the startlist with the highest Hills rating (78) alongside a strong Climbing score (80), making him the standout candidate for a hilly finish stage. His Legendary rarity and upcoming Vuelta preparation suggest he will be targeting a result here.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Santiago Buitrago and Andrea Bagioli are the two strongest challengers. Buitrago's Hills-Climbing double of 77-77 makes him one of the most complete climbers in the race, while Bagioli's 77 Hills score is reinforced by the best recent hilly-race stats in the entire field — a win and two podiums in seven outings.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli carries a Hills rating of 77 and backs it up with the best recent form data in the field — averaging 12.3 in hilly races over 7 outings with 1 win and 2 podiums. He is clearly in good shape heading into this stage.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Santiago Buitrago posts a Hills rating of 77 and an impressive Climbing score of 77, among the best in the field outside of Almeida. His well-rounded profile and confirmed TdP presence make him a genuine podium threat on this uphill finish.
★★
Dark Horses
Jan Christen, Neilson Powless, and Christian Scaroni form a competitive second tier. Christen matches the 78 Hills peak and is explicitly targeting this race. Powless arrives with a recent win in a similar-profile stage, while Scaroni's consistency — six top-10s in ten hilly races — makes him a reliable each-way pick.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Christian Scaroni holds a Hills rating of 77 and a Climbing score of 75, with solid recent hilly-race form — 10 races, 1 podium, 6 top-10s and an average position of 32.3. He is a consistent finisher on terrain like this.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jan Christen matches the top Hills rating of 78 and brings a solid TT score (73) that aids on sustained climbs. He is explicitly listed as targeting Tour de Pologne, signalling team commitment to a result.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Neilson Powless has a Hills rating of 76 and is the third-best performer in recent hilly races (avg 21.7, 1 win, 1 podium across 3 races). His recent win in a similar-profile event demonstrates current race-winning form.
★
Ones to Watch
Schachmann, Fisher-Black, Laurance, and Kelderman round out the selection as outsiders with genuine claims. All carry Hills ratings of 75–77 and have either strong recent form or well-rounded profiles suited to an uphill finish. Any of them could emerge if the top favourites cancel each other out.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance brings a Hills rating of 77 and a noteworthy Sprint score (73) that could prove useful on a steep but not purely climbing finish. He has recent hilly-race data (avg 32.2, best 4th) and heads to the Vuelta next, suggesting current fitness.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Finn Fisher-Black has a Hills rating of 76 and showed recent hilly-race form with a best result of 2nd place and 1 podium in 6 races (avg 29.8). His confirmed TdP and Worlds calendars suggest he is in a strong block of form.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Maximilian Schachmann rates 77 in Hills with a very competitive TT score of 76, capable of riding hard on the run-in to the summit. His experience and confirmed TdP start make him a credible outside bet.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Wilco Kelderman rates 76 in Hills with a Climbing score of 76, one of the better pure climbers in the field. His confirmed Tour de Pologne start and well-rounded Epic profile make him a quiet danger on a hilly summit finish.
Verdict
João Almeida is the clear favourite, combining the highest Hills rating in the field with elite Climbing stats and Legendary rarity. Buitrago and Bagioli are his most dangerous challengers, with Bagioli's recent hilly-race form particularly compelling.