Stage 3 of the Tour de l'Ain covers 131.5 km from Oyonnax to Lélex Monts-Jura, finishing atop a hilly ski-station climb that will inevitably shatter any bunch sprint ambitions. Rated as a hilly stage with a summit-adjacent finish, it heavily rewards riders with high Hills and Climbing stats, punishing pure sprinters and time-trial specialists. At 2.1 level, the field is competitive but selective, with several Pro Team leaders and ambitious continental riders all targeting the stage win.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Emanuel Buchmann stands alone at the top with a Hills rating of 76, the best in the startlist, complemented by a Climbing score of 76. His experience in mountainous stage races and ability to time efforts on punchy climbs make him the near-certain race favourite for the Lélex finish.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Emanuel Buchmann tops the startlist with a Hills rating of 76 and matching Climbing of 76, making him the best-suited rider on paper for this hilly finale to Lélex Monts-Jura. His Grand Tour pedigree and all-round ability in punchy, undulating terrain make him the clear favourite.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Wout Poels and Alexander Cepeda both combine Hills ratings of 73–74 with Climbing scores of 75, putting them in the same physical bracket as Buchmann. Either could take the win if Buchmann's Cofidis team fails to control the race or if an early breakaway sticks.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Alexander Cepeda sports a Hills rating of 73 backed by an impressive Climbing score of 75, suggesting he can hurt rivals on the steeper gradients leading into Lélex. His EF-EasyPost team has the depth to set him up well on the final climb.
Unibet Rose
Unibet Rose
Wout Poels carries a Hills rating of 74 and Climbing of 75, essentially matching Buchmann across the key metrics and boasting a longer palmares in similar mountain-adjacent races. He is a seasoned performer who regularly challenges in hilly stage finishes.
★★
Dark Horses
Nicola Conci (Hills 75), Sylvain Moniquet (Hills 74), and form rider Noa Isidore (two podiums in 90 days) represent the dark-horse tier. Conci and Moniquet have the raw stats to compete with the top pair, while Isidore's recent results in hilly races suggest he punches above his rating.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Nicola Conci posts a Hills score of 75 — second only to Buchmann — and his balanced profile across all stat categories makes him a genuine threat on a hilly profile with a selective finish. XDS Astana will look to him as a protected leader.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Noa Isidore is the standout form rider in the data, averaging 28.9 in hilly-profile races over the last 90 days with two podiums and a best result of second place. His Hills rating of 72 may be modest but his recent results justify dark-horse status.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Sylvain Moniquet shares a Hills rating of 74 with Poels and brings solid Climbing (74) and a slightly higher Sprint (67), giving him flexibility to contest both summit finishes and reduced-group sprints. Cofidis has two strong cards to play alongside Buchmann.
★
Ones to Watch
Pierre Thierry, Axel Mariault, Chris Hamilton, and Brieuc Rolland round out the top ten as outsiders with genuine credentials. Thierry and Mariault bring the most relevant recent form data, while Hamilton and Rolland offer strong climbing profiles that could make them dangerous in a breakaway scenario.
CIC Pro Cycling
CIC Pro Cycling
Axel Mariault has shown consistent top-10 capability in similar-profile races (two top-10s, best of seventh) over nine starts, making him a reliable each-way pick despite his Hills rating of 73 being mid-pack. CIC Pro Cycling will back him as a stage hunter.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Brieuc Rolland holds a Hills score of 74 — matching Poels and Moniquet — and his Cobbles rating of 67 suggests good all-terrain durability for a tough 131 km stage. Still developing at Groupama-FDJ, he is one to watch if the race explodes early.
Picnic PostNL
Picnic PostNL
Chris Hamilton carries a Hills rating of 73 and a Climbing score of 74, one of the better climbing profiles in the field, and Picnic PostNL will likely give him freedom to animate the race. He is a rider capable of going on the offensive on long hilly days.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Pierre Thierry has been the busiest hilly-race competitor in recent form with 12 starts, one podium, and a best of third, suggesting he knows how to position himself in this terrain. His Hills (70) and TT (72) ratings give him versatility on a stage that could favour attackers.
Verdict
Emanuel Buchmann is the clear favourite thanks to the highest Hills rating in the field (76) and Grand Tour-level climbing credentials, with Wout Poels and Alexander Cepeda his most dangerous rivals. Form rider Noa Isidore adds an unpredictable threat after two podiums in similar races over the past 90 days.