Stage 1 of the Tour de l'Ain covers 160.9 km from Parc des Oiseaux to Bourg-en-Bresse, rated as a hilly profile with a flat finish. The undulating terrain will test the puncheurs and all-rounders, while the flat run-in to the line could allow a small group or even a reduced bunch sprint. As the opening stage of a 2.1-ranked race, teams will be looking to establish early GC positions and gain stage-race momentum.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Noa Isidore is the clear favorite based on form, not just ratings. His 28.9 average position across 7 hilly-profile races, two podiums, and a best finish of 2nd place give him a meaningful edge over the field in terms of recent performance on comparable terrain.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Noa Isidore leads the form charts with an average position of 28.9 across 7 hilly-profile races, including 2 podiums and a best result of 2nd. His Hills stat of 72 is competitive, and his consistent recent results make him the standout favorite for this flat-finish hilly opener.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Emanuel Buchmann and Pierre Thierry represent the two strongest bets behind Isidore. Buchmann's Hills 76 tops the entire startlist, while Thierry's volume of hilly-profile races — 12 in total with a best of 3rd — signals reliable form rather than a one-off result.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Emanuel Buchmann tops the startlist with a Hills stat of 76 and solid Climbing of 76, making him the best-rated rider on paper for this profile. While recent form data is limited, his class and experience at this level make him a genuine podium threat.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Pierre Thierry is the most active rider in the form table with 12 hilly-profile races, averaging 35.9 and posting a best of 3rd place, plus 1 podium and 2 top-10s. His consistent presence and solid Hills stat of 70 make him a reliable contender.
★★
Dark Horses
Mariault, Poels, and Cepeda form a competitive second tier. Each brings either a high Hills/Climbing rating or strong team backing that could propel them into the top five, particularly if the race breaks apart before the flat finale.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Alexander Cepeda posts the highest Climbing stat among the mid-tier group at 75 alongside a Hills score of 73, making him well-suited to a hilly profile with a flat finish. EF-EasyPost will be looking to him as their protected rider.
CIC Pro Cycling
CIC Pro Cycling
Axel Mariault carries a Hills stat of 73 and has shown real promise with a best result of 7th and 2 top-10 finishes across 9 hilly-profile races. He represents strong value from the CIC Pro Cycling squad.
Unibet Rose
Unibet Rose
Wout Poels brings a Hills rating of 74 and Climbing of 75, credentials built over a long WorldTour career. His ability to handle undulating terrain before a flat finish suits this stage perfectly.
★
Ones to Watch
Moniquet and Conci carry strong card stats but lack the recent form data to justify a higher tier. Gachignard's TT ability gives him a flat-finish edge, while Hardouin's outstanding recent average of 26.9 makes him the most intriguing underdog despite his lower Hills rating.
Van Rysel Roubaix
Van Rysel Roubaix
Louis Hardouin leads all riders in recent hilly-profile form with an average position of 26.9 across 9 races and a best result of 5th. His Hills stat of 68 is lower than the leaders, but his current momentum is hard to ignore.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Nicola Conci holds the second-highest Hills rating in the field at 75 with a balanced Sprint of 66, giving him options on a flat finish. Form data is absent from the hilly-profile table, adding uncertainty despite his strong card attributes.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Sylvain Moniquet holds a Hills stat of 74 and benefits from a strong Cofidis team presence alongside Buchmann. Limited form data from similar profiles keeps him in the outsider tier despite his raw rating.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Thomas Gachignard has a Hills stat of 73 and an impressive TT score of 72, which could help on a flat finale. His recent form average of 56.7 is modest but he has shown flashes of potential worth monitoring.
Verdict
Noa Isidore enters as the top favorite based on the best recent hilly-profile form in the field, including two podiums and a runner-up result. Buchmann's superior Hills rating and Poels' experience make them the key challengers, with Mariault and Cepeda capable of spoiling the party.