Stage 7 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 175.1 km from Hagetmau to Bordeaux on a flat profile, setting the scene for a high-speed bunch sprint finish. Bordeaux is one of cycling's most iconic sprint venues, and with no significant climbs on the route, the fast men will be lining up for the win. Team lead-outs and positioning in the final kilometers will be decisive.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jasper Philipsen (sprint 82) is the complete package for this stage: elite sprint stats, a proven Tour de France winner, and Alpecin-Premier Tech's well-drilled lead-out. His recent form of 4.0 average with a win confirms he is peaking at the right time.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Jasper Philipsen boasts the second-highest sprint stat (82) in the field and has been in excellent recent form, averaging 4.0 across three similar-profile races with one win and two podiums. Alpecin-Premier Tech has the firepower to control a sprint finish, making him the clear favorite on this flat stage into Bordeaux.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Tim Merlier (sprint 83) is statistically the fastest sprinter in the field and cannot be discounted despite his Renewi Tour scheduling. Olav Kooij (sprint 81) is the consistent Decathlon CMA CGM option who thrives in mass finishes and rarely misses the top five when delivered cleanly.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij carries an 81 sprint stat and has been consistently competitive in bunch finishes for Decathlon CMA CGM. His team can deliver him in good position and his ceiling in a mass sprint is very high.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Tim Merlier leads all sprinters with a sprint stat of 83 and is the top-rated rider on paper, but his upcoming Renewi Tour commitment raises minor questions about his Tour de France focus. Still, his raw speed makes him a serious threat to take the stage win.
★★
Dark Horses
Pavel Bittner leads the form table with a 2.0 average in recent sprint races and arrives with confidence. Biniam Girmay (sprint 79) and Max Kanter (sprint 77, avg 4.0 in recent sprints) round out a trio of riders who can all realistically reach the podium if conditions suit.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Biniam Girmay holds a sprint stat of 79 and has the athletic versatility and finishing punch to contest any flat sprint. NSN Cycling has the squad to set him up for a strong finish at Bordeaux.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Max Kanter averages 4.0 in recent similar-profile races with a best of 3rd, showing consistent top-end form. His sprint stat of 77 is solid and he has demonstrated the ability to go deep in sprint finishes at this level.
Picnic PostNL
Picnic PostNL
Pavel Bittner leads all riders in recent sprint-profile form with a 2.0 average position from one comparable race, showing he is in sharp condition. His sprint stat of 78 is competitive and he will be motivated to make his mark at the Tour.
★
Ones to Watch
Mads Pedersen, Søren Wærenskjold, Mathieu van der Poel, and Phil Bauhaus all have the tools to gate-crash the top five. Van der Poel's recent 3.0 average is encouraging despite a lower sprint stat, Wærenskjold has a podium in recent similar races, and Bauhaus is a dependable finisher with team support.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mads Pedersen's sprint stat of 77 is backed by the highest cobbles rating (80) in the field and a 76 hills score, giving him flexibility if the finish gets chaotic. Recent form shows a 13.5 average but he has the class to punch above that.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Mathieu van der Poel has a recent form average of 3.0 across two sprint-profile races and is always dangerous in a reduced bunch or if the finish deviates from a pure mass sprint. His sprint stat of 73 is modest but his racing intelligence compensates.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Phil Bauhaus carries a sprint stat of 78 and has the Bahrain Victorious lead-out to support him in a bunch finish. He is a reliable top-10 threat and capable of snatching a podium if the big guns neutralize each other.
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Søren Wærenskjold's sprint stat of 78 is complemented by a standout TT score of 76, and he averaged 13.8 across four recent similar-profile races including a podium. He is capable of surprising the field if the lead-out train fractures.
Verdict
Jasper Philipsen is the top favorite, with his sprint stat, team strength, and recent form all pointing to a stage win in Bordeaux. Tim Merlier and Olav Kooij are the most dangerous challengers, while Pavel Bittner's red-hot recent form makes him a genuine dark horse.