Stage 21 of the 2026 Tour de France is a 133 km flat stage from Thoiry to Paris, culminating on the famous Champs-Élysées. Traditionally a celebratory procession until the final circuits in Paris, this stage almost invariably ends in a mass bunch sprint. The wide, cobbled boulevard rewards pure sprinters with strong nerve and a well-organized lead-out train.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jasper Philipsen is the class of this field on a flat sprint stage, combining the top Sprint rating (82) with the best recent form average (3.4) and 1 win from 7 comparable starts. His Alpecin-Premier Tech lead-out is one of the most reliable in the peloton, and the Champs-Élysées suits his profile perfectly.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Jasper Philipsen leads the field with the highest Sprint stat (82) and is the standout favorite. His recent form is exceptional — averaging 3.4 across 7 flat-profile races with 1 win and 4 podiums, making him the clear top pick for the Champs-Élysées finale.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Olav Kooij (Sprint 81) and Biniam Girmay (Sprint 79) are the two riders most likely to deny Philipsen the win. Kooij has a win and five podiums in recent flat races, while Girmay's speed and team support make him dangerous. Both are legitimate contenders for the top step.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Biniam Girmay carries a Sprint stat of 79 and has 3 podiums in 7 comparable races, with a best result of 2nd. His combination of raw speed, consistent form, and strong team support from NSN Cycling makes him a top-tier challenger.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij boasts a Sprint stat of 81 and has demonstrated real winning ability in similar races, including 1 win and 5 podiums from 7 starts. His average position of 12.4 is slightly held back by off-days, but his ceiling makes him a genuine threat.
★★
Dark Horses
Søren Wærenskjold, Mads Pedersen, and Pavel Bittner all carry Sprint stats of 77–78 and have demonstrated winning ability in similar conditions. Wærenskjold's versatility, Pedersen's classic pedigree, and Bittner's emerging consistency give each a realistic shot at the podium if the sprint becomes fragmented.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mads Pedersen boasts a Sprint stat of 77 and the highest Cobbles score (80) in the group, useful if the Champs-Élysées surface plays a role. Though his recent average position is 11.3 without podiums, his pedigree and team support at Lidl-Trek make him a serious dark horse.
Picnic PostNL
Picnic PostNL
Pavel Bittner holds a Sprint stat of 78 and has shown a best finish of 5th in similar-profile races. With 5 recent outings and improving consistency, the Picnic PostNL sprinter is a credible threat in a wide-open bunch sprint.
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Søren Wærenskjold has a Sprint stat of 78 and has shown he can win in flat finishes, recording 1 win and 3 podiums in 9 recent outings. His strong TT score (76) also hints at explosive finishing power in sprint scenarios.
★
Ones to Watch
Phil Bauhaus, Pascal Ackermann, Max Kanter, and Milan Fretin are the wildcard selections. Kanter and Fretin are standout value picks given their strong recent averages (6.5 and 9.2 respectively), while Bauhaus and Ackermann have the raw speed to factor in if their teams deliver a perfect lead-out in the final meters on the Champs-Élysées.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Max Kanter averages just 6.5 in similar-profile races with a best of 2nd, suggesting he regularly contends despite a Sprint stat of 77. His recent form is the second-best in the field, making him a sleeper pick worth watching.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Milan Fretin has a Sprint stat of 77 and an average position of 9.2 with 2 podiums from 8 comparable races, including a best of 2nd. An emerging Cofidis sprinter, he could surprise if given the right lead-out on the iconic Champs-Élysées.
Jayco AlUla
Jayco AlUla
Pascal Ackermann carries a Sprint stat of 78 but has averaged 28.6 across 9 recent flat races with no podiums. He has sneaked into top-10 finishes before (best: 7th) and could benefit from a chaotic sprint.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Phil Bauhaus (Sprint 78) has 2 podiums from 8 recent flat races and a best of 3rd, showing he can challenge on the right day. However, his average position of 31.6 suggests inconsistency that keeps him as an outsider.
Verdict
Jasper Philipsen is the undisputed favorite with the highest Sprint stat in the field and outstanding recent form including 4 podiums in 7 flat races. Olav Kooij and Biniam Girmay are his most dangerous rivals, both capable of winning on the right day.