Stage 20 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 170.9 km from Le Bourg d'Oisans to the legendary Alpe d'Huez, one of cycling's most iconic mountain finishes. With the race departing from the foot of the Alps and concluding on the 21 hairpin climb, this stage is a pure climbing contest that will reward explosive power and sustained aerobic capacity. At this point in the Tour, accumulated fatigue will play a decisive role, separating the true climbers from those who have been pushed to their limits.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Pogacar stands alone at the summit of this field. His Climbing stat of 84 leads everyone by a clear margin, and his 1.4 average finishing position across 9 mountain races — with 7 wins — is simply dominant. Unless isolated or ill, he is the near-certain stage winner.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Tadej Pogacar is the undisputed favorite with a Climbing stat of 84 — the highest in the field — and a staggering average finishing position of 1.4 across 9 similar-profile races with 7 wins. On Alpe d'Huez, his combination of explosive climbing and race intelligence makes him near-unbeatable.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Evenepoel and Del Toro are the two riders most likely to contest the podium. Evenepoel's versatility and recent win in mountain races, combined with Del Toro's explosive recent form and 2 wins in similar profiles, put them ahead of the rest of the chasing pack.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro has been in outstanding form with a 5.6 average position and 2 wins in similar-profile races, supported by a Climbing stat of 78. The young UAE Emirates rider has the legs and the team structure around him to finish on the podium.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Remco Evenepoel averages 4.5 in mountain races with a win in that sample, and his Climbing stat of 78 is backed by an elite TT score of 84 that helps him control tempo and launch sustained efforts. He is the most likely rider to challenge Pogacar on the final slopes.
★★
Dark Horses
Ayuso, Martinez, and Seixas form a competitive second tier with Climbing stats of 79 or 78 and proven recent results in mountain finishes. All three have shown podium-level performances in similar races and could benefit if any of the top favorites crack under pressure.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Juan Ayuso carries a Climbing stat of 79 and an average finishing position of 8.4 in mountain races, with a best of 2nd and two podiums in his recent sample. He is a consistent top-10 finisher who could target a podium if the race opens up.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Lenny Martinez has posted an 8.6 average in similar races with a best of 2nd, and his Climbing stat of 79 places him firmly in the elite tier. His consistency over nine races makes him a reliable pick for a top-5 finish.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Seixas surprises with a 7.3 average position across 6 mountain-profile races and a best of 3rd, backed by a solid Climbing stat of 78. He has shown he can hang with the best climbers and punish any momentary weakness.
★
Ones to Watch
Carapaz, Skjelmose, Hindley, and Pidcock are the riders most likely to spring a surprise from outside the top tier. Each has elite climbing credentials and at least one top result in similar races, though inconsistent recent form or tactical positioning means they are most likely fighting for top-5 to top-10 finishes.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Jai Hindley has four podiums in 12 similar-profile races and a Climbing stat of 79, making him a credible outsider for a top result. His recent form has been less sharp but he has the pedigree to deliver on a legendary climb.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mattias Skjelmose brings a Climbing stat of 79 and five top-10s in similar races with a best of 4th, though he has not yet secured a win in this race type recently. His all-round ability and Hills score of 80 make him a wildcard on Alpe d'Huez.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Richard Carapaz has a top-tier Climbing stat of 80 and a 3rd-place best in similar races, but his 10.8 average position shows inconsistency. A former Tour de France stage winner at altitude, he remains dangerous if conditions suit a late attack.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Tom Pidcock owns a famous 2022 Alpe d'Huez stage win and still carries a Climbing stat of 78 alongside a Hills score of 80. His 14.3 average in similar races masks one recent win, and he has the ability to attack from a group to take a surprise result.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite with dominant stats and near-perfect recent form in mountain finishes, while Remco Evenepoel and Isaac del Toro represent the most credible challengers for a podium place on Alpe d'Huez.