Stage 18 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 185.2 km from Voiron to the summit finish at Orcières-Merlette, a classic Alpine climb that has historically decided GC battles. As a mountain finish stage in the final week, riders will already be carrying significant fatigue, making climbing efficiency and team support crucial. This stage is tailor-made for pure climbers and GC leaders with high climbing stats.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Pogacar stands alone at the top. His climbing stat of 84 is the highest in the field by a clear margin, and his recent form — 7 wins and an average position of 1.4 across 9 similar-profile races — is historically dominant. Barring an extraordinary team effort to crack him, this stage finish is his to lose.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar is the undisputed favorite with the highest climbing stat (84) in the field and a staggering average finishing position of 1.4 across 9 similar-profile races, including 7 wins. His dominance in mountain finishes this season makes him virtually unbeatable on a stage like Orcières-Merlette.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Evenepoel and del Toro are the two riders most likely to challenge Pogacar. Evenepoel's average of 4.5 across 4 mountain races, combined with a climbing stat of 78, makes him the strongest GC rival. Del Toro's 5.6 average across 7 races with 2 wins shows he has the climbing legs and youth to go deep on a summit finish.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro has been one of the most consistent climbers in recent form, averaging 5.6 across 7 similar races with 2 wins and 5 podiums. His climbing stat of 78 and UAE team backing make him a genuine threat on this mountain finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Evenepoel boasts a climbing stat of 78 and an excellent average position of 4.5 across 4 similar-profile races, including 1 win. His time trial prowess (84 TT) means he likely arrives at this stage in strong GC contention, and he has the pedigree to contest mountain finishes.
★★
Dark Horses
Lipowitz, Ayuso, and Martinez form a cluster of consistent climbers with stats of 79-80 and solid recent records. All three have demonstrated podium-level capacity in similar terrain, and with strong team positions, any of them could capitalise if the favorites neutralise each other in the final kilometres.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Lipowitz carries a climbing stat of 80 and has shown outstanding form with an average position of 5.8 across 9 similar-profile races, including 1 win and 4 podiums. He is Red Bull-BORA's most dangerous climber and capable of a top-3 finish.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Juan Ayuso averages 8.6 across 7 similar-profile races with a best finish of 2nd and a climbing stat of 79. He has been consistently competitive in mountain stages and represents Lidl-Trek's best GC hope.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Lenny Martinez shares an identical average position of 8.6 with Ayuso across 9 similar-profile races, with 2 podiums and a climbing stat of 79. His volume of results in comparable races demonstrates reliable top-10 finishing ability on mountain terrain.
★
Ones to Watch
Carapaz and Skjelmose bring high climbing stats and pedigree, but inconsistent recent form limits their ceiling here. Seixas is a genuine surprise package with a 7.3 average in similar races despite lower profile. Hindley, a former Grand Tour winner, could produce a late-race surge if he has saved his legs through the first two weeks.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Jai Hindley's climbing stat of 79 and 4 podiums in 12 similar-profile races show he can compete at this level, though his average position of 13.6 reflects inconsistency. A former Giro winner, he remains a dark-horse option if he finds his best form late in the Tour.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose's climbing stat of 79 and an average position of 9.7 across 7 similar races are encouraging, though he has yet to crack a podium in this profile. His all-round ability and Lidl-Trek team support make him a watchable outsider.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Seixas averages 7.3 across 6 similar-profile races with a best of 3rd, representing excellent value as a 1-star pick. His climbing stat of 78 and consistent top-10 finishes hint at an underrated climber capable of surprising on Orcières-Merlette.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Carapaz has a strong climbing stat of 80 and a best finish of 3rd in similar-profile races, but his average position of 10.6 across only 5 races suggests inconsistency. He remains a capable podium threat if legs are good on the day.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite given his climbing stat of 84 and near-perfect recent form in mountain finishes, while Remco Evenepoel and Isaac del Toro are his most dangerous challengers based on current season results.