Stage 17 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 174.7 km from Chambéry to Voiron on a hilly profile with a flat finish, rewarding riders who can survive punchy climbs and still deliver in a reduced sprint or late attack. The Dauphiné-style terrain in this corner of the Isère department will test GC riders and opportunists alike, with teams likely to be active in controlling breaks. At 2.UWT level in a Grand Tour, the favorites will be closely marked but the flat finale leaves the door open for a puncheur or escapee.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Pogacar is in a class of his own on this terrain, combining the highest hills rating in the field (83) with 4 wins and 5 podiums in his last 10 hilly races. Barring a tactical decision to save energy, he is almost certain to be in contention at the finish.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar leads the hills stat at 83 and boasts the best recent form of any rider in the field, averaging 10.8 across 10 hilly-profile races with 4 wins and 5 podiums. A flat finish suits his ability to control from the front and he remains the undisputed favorite heading into Stage 17.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Evenepoel and Pidcock both rate at 80+ for hills and have demonstrated podium-level consistency in similar races this season. Either could challenge Pogacar if a small group forms on the final climbs before the flat run into Voiron.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Evenepoel's hills rating of 81 is second only to Pogacar's, and he has managed 3 podiums in 6 similar-profile races with an average position of 18.5. His time trial strength (84) also means he can control tempo on any technical descent into Voiron.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Tom Pidcock carries a hills score of 80 and has been impressively consistent in hilly races, recording 4 podiums and 6 top-10s in 8 races at an average of 26.0. His punchy style is perfectly suited to a hilly stage with a flat run-in where he can time a late attack.
★★
Dark Horses
Del Toro, Lipowitz, and Grégoire all carry solid hills ratings in the 77-79 range and have each recorded at least one win in similar-profile racing this season. They represent the most likely sources of a surprise result, whether attacking in a break or featuring in a sprint from a select group.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Florian Lipowitz (hills 77, climbing 80) has shown strong hilly-race form with 1 win and an average of 27.1 across 10 races. His high climbing score suggests he can thin out the peloton on the hillier sections before the flat finish.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro posts a hills rating of 79 and has already taken a win in similar-profile races this season, averaging 25.6 over 8 outings with 1 win and 1 podium. As Pogacar's UAE teammate he may ride in support, but if given freedom he is a genuine dark horse.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Romain Grégoire's hills rating of 78 is backed by a win and 4 top-10s in 10 similar races, averaging 32.7. The Groupama-FDJ rider has shown a taste for punchy finishes and could use team support to set up a late move.
★
Ones to Watch
Carapaz, Vauquelin, Skjelmose, and Tobias Halland Johannessen are all capable of top-10 finishes on a day like this, backed by hills scores between 77 and 79 and flashes of form over similar terrain. They are unlikely to beat the top favorites but could capitalize if the race breaks apart unexpectedly.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Kévin Vauquelin (hills 79) has shown up in similar races with 3 top-10s in 10 outings and an average of 27.4, though he is yet to reach the podium. The INEOS Grenadiers youngster could target a breakaway or surprise in a reduced sprint.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mattias Skjelmose carries a hills rating of 80 and has logged 3 top-10s in 10 hilly-profile races this season, though his average of 33.4 reflects some inconsistency. A stage like this, with a flat finish after hilly terrain, suits his style on a good day.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Richard Carapaz holds a hills score of 78 with a climbing rating of 80, and has two podiums in 9 hilly races this season at an average of 24.9. He is capable of an animated ride but his consistency has been limited.
Tobias
Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen (hills 77) has a podium and 3 top-10s in 10 similar races at an average of 31.4, making him one of the more intriguing outsiders in the field. The Uno-X rider could thrive if a breakaway group goes clear on the hilly roads leading to Voiron.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the clear favorite given his dominant hills rating and outstanding recent form in similar-profile races, while Remco Evenepoel and Tom Pidcock are the most credible challengers capable of matching him in a reduced group.