Stage 16 of the 2026 Tour de France is a 26.10 km individual time trial running from Évian-les-Bains to Thonon-les-Bains, both situated on the southern shore of Lake Geneva. The relatively flat lakeside profile should suit pure power riders over climbers, making it one of the key stages for GC separations and specialist glory. Arriving midway through the final week, the ITT will have significant implications for the overall classification.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Remco Evenepoel is the standout pick with the highest TT stat in the field at 84 and a race schedule clearly built around peaking for time trial efforts. His world-class credentials against the clock and motivation to shine ahead of the World Championships ITT make him the rider to beat on the shores of Lake Geneva.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Remco Evenepoel holds the highest Time Trial stat in the peloton at 84 and is targeting the World Championships ITT later this season, signaling peak motivation for this discipline. His pedigree as a former world TT champion makes him the clear favorite on this 26 km test near Évian.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Filippo Ganna and Joshua Tarling form an elite INEOS duo that collectively represents the biggest threat to Evenepoel. Ganna's recent TT win and 1.0 average position are hard to ignore, while Tarling's rapid rise as a specialist at 21 makes INEOS a team capable of landing a 1-2 result.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Filippo Ganna boasts a Time Trial stat of 82 and is in sensational form, averaging 1.0 in similar-profile races with a win in his most recent TT. The INEOS specialist is the most dangerous rival to Evenepoel and cannot be overlooked.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Joshua Tarling carries a TT stat of 80 and continues to emerge as one of the world's premier time trialists at just 21 years old. Backed by INEOS alongside Ganna, he represents a genuine threat for the top two positions.
★★
Dark Horses
Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard bring GC stakes to the TT with both holding top-tier abilities against the clock and everything to fight for in the overall. Edoardo Affini, with a 79 TT stat and no GC burden, adds a pure specialist threat who could steal the stage if the GC leaders cancel each other out.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Edoardo Affini carries a TT stat of 79 — the joint-highest among non-Legendary riders — and is a dedicated time trial specialist for Visma. With no GC pressure, he can ride flat-out and is a strong stage-win candidate.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Jonas Vingegaard posts a TT stat of 77 and, while his recent form in TTs shows an average position of 13.0, his track record at Tour de France time trials is elite and he will be targeting this stage as a GC weapon. Expect him to outperform his recent smaller-race TT results.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Tadej Pogacar has a TT stat of 79 and averaged 3.5 across two recent TT-profile races, including a win, proving he is no passenger against the clock. As the race leader likely defending GC position, he will be highly motivated to limit losses or even challenge for the stage.
★
Ones to Watch
Thymen Arensman's recent TT podium, Tobias Foss's world title pedigree, Florian Lipowitz's consistent TT form, and Brandon McNulty's 77 TT stat all make this quartet legitimate top-10 contenders who could spring a surprise if the favorites have an off day.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Brandon McNulty posts a TT stat of 77 and averaged 9.0 in recent TT-profile races, demonstrating consistent performances against the clock as UAE's TT specialist in support of Pogacar. A free ride on this stage could see him challenge for a top finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Florian Lipowitz has a TT stat of 76 and finished 10th in his most recent similar-profile race, showing he can compete against the clock while also being a GC factor at this Tour. A top-10 finish here is very plausible.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Thymen Arensman recorded a second-place finish in his most recent TT-profile race and holds a solid TT stat of 76. He is a versatile INEOS rider who could surprise on this technical 26 km effort.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Tobias Foss is a former world TT champion who finished third in his most recent similar-profile race, showing his specialist credentials remain intact despite a TT stat of 76. He is a credible dark-horse pick for a surprise podium.
Verdict
Remco Evenepoel is the overwhelming favorite given his top TT stat of 84 and ITT-focused schedule, with Filippo Ganna and Joshua Tarling of INEOS forming the most dangerous challenge for stage honors.