Stage 15 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 183.9 km from Champagnole to the Plateau de Solaison, a classic Alpine mountain finish that will decisively test the GC contenders. The summit arrival rewards pure climbers and promises an aggressive, selective finale that will likely reshape the overall standings. With fatigue accumulating over two weeks of racing, only the very best will be able to follow the accelerations of the top climbers.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Tadej Pogacar is in a class of his own on mountain finishes, combining the highest climbing score (84) with near-perfect recent form — 6 wins and an average position of 1.4 across 7 comparable races. Short of a mechanical or crash, he starts this stage as an overwhelming favorite to take the win.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Tadej Pogacar is the undisputed favorite with the highest climbing stat in the field (84) and a staggering average finishing position of 1.4 across 7 similar-profile races, including 6 wins. His dominance in mountain finishes this season makes him near-impossible to bet against.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Jonas Vingegaard and Florian Lipowitz represent the two most credible podium threats. Vingegaard's track record on Tour mountain stages is second to none, while Lipowitz has proven he can win on summit finishes and holds a very strong average position of 5.9 this season.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Florian Lipowitz has a climbing stat of 80 and an impressive average position of 5.9 across 7 similar-profile races, including 1 win and 4 podiums. The Red Bull-BORA climber has established himself as a genuine GC threat and mountain stage winner this season.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Jonas Vingegaard holds a climbing stat of 83 and has 5 wins in similar-profile races with an average position of 5.3 over 10 events, showing consistent top-level form. As the two-time defending Tour champion, he is the most credible threat to Pogacar on any mountain finish.
★★
Dark Horses
Isaac del Toro, Tobias Halland Johannessen, and Juan Ayuso form a talented trio of climbers all capable of a top-5 finish. Del Toro's two wins in climbing races stand out, Halland Johannessen's 3 podiums from 5 attempts show remarkable consistency, and Ayuso brings GC ambition and team backing to the finale.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro carries a climbing stat of 78 and averages 6.8 across 5 climbing races, with 2 wins and 3 podiums — remarkable output for a young UAE rider. He has the support of a powerful team and the legs to challenge on the Plateau de Solaison.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Juan Ayuso has a climbing stat of 79 and an average position of 9.0 across 5 similar-profile races, with 2 podiums and a best of 2nd. The Lidl-Trek co-leader is in fine form and capable of animating the finale on a climb like Solaison.
Tobias
Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen boasts a climbing stat of 78 and averages 6.2 across 5 similar races with 3 podiums and a best result of 2nd. The Uno-X Mobility climber has been quietly outstanding and deserves serious consideration at this mountain finish.
★
Ones to Watch
Lenny Martinez, Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose, and Jai Hindley are the outsiders best placed to exploit any tactical errors from the favorites. All four carry climbing stats of 79-80 and have shown podium-level performances in mountain races, making them genuine ones to watch on the Plateau de Solaison.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Jai Hindley holds a climbing stat of 79 and averages 11.4 across 10 similar-profile races with 4 podiums, showing he can deliver on big mountain days. The Red Bull-BORA team's depth around Lipowitz could see Hindley play a role before launching his own bid late.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Lenny Martinez carries a solid climbing stat of 79 and averages 8.4 across 7 climbing races with 2 podiums, suggesting he can finish near the top on a good day. His consistency makes him a reliable one-to-watch pick even without a stage win to his name this season.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mattias Skjelmose has a climbing stat of 79 combined with strong hills (80) and sprint (70) scores, giving him a well-rounded profile for a technical mountain finish. His average of 10.4 across 5 similar races shows he can target the top-10 and potentially higher on a good day.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Richard Carapaz is a former Giro winner with a climbing stat of 80 and a best result of 3rd in similar races this season. His experience in mountain finishes and competitive EF-EasyPost setup make him a legitimate dark-horse threat despite limited recent race days.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite with the best climbing stat in the peloton and six wins in similar-profile races this season; Jonas Vingegaard and Florian Lipowitz are the most credible challengers capable of limiting his damage or seizing the stage themselves.