Stage 14 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 155.3 km from Mulhouse to Le Markstein, a classic Vosges mountain finish that will shed the sprinters and test the pure climbers. The summit arrival rewards sustained climbing power over punchy acceleration, making it a decisive GC battleground. With multiple top contenders present and teams like UAE, Visma, and Red Bull-BORA fielding loaded lineups, the racing is expected to be aggressive in the final kilometers.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Pogacar is simply in a class of his own on this stage profile. His 84 climbing stat leads the entire startlist, and his 6 wins from 7 similar-profile races this season make him the most dominant climber in the peloton by a wide margin. Barring a mechanical or a team-orchestrated ambush, he is expected to dictate the race on the final ascent.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar leads all climbers with an 84 climbing stat and an astonishing 1.4 average finishing position across 7 similar-profile races, including 6 wins. On a mountain finish like Le Markstein, he is the overwhelming favorite and nearly impossible to look past.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Vingegaard and Lipowitz are the two most credible challengers. Vingegaard's 83 climbing stat and 5 wins from 10 mountain races this season make him the only rider who has consistently pushed Pogacar to the limit. Lipowitz, at 80 climbing with a 5.9 average and 4 podiums, has emerged as a reliable top-five finisher and could be the surprise performer if the two favorites neutralize each other.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Lipowitz carries an 80 climbing stat and a stunning 5.9 average position in similar races with 1 win and 4 podiums from just 7 starts — elite numbers for a rider outside the top two. Red Bull-BORA's team strength and his improving Grand Tour pedigree make him a genuine podium threat.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Vingegaard boasts an 83 climbing stat and a 5.3 average position across 10 mountain races with 5 wins and 7 podiums — the only rider who can realistically challenge Pogacar for the stage win. His Visma team provides strong support and he has proven he can crack GC rivals on steep finishes.
★★
Dark Horses
Del Toro, Halland Johannessen, and Ayuso form a strong second tier. Del Toro has 2 wins and 3 podiums from just 5 mountain outings and rides for the strongest team in the race. Halland Johannessen's 6.2 average position is the third-best in the field and he is unconstrained by team hierarchy. Ayuso adds Lidl-Trek's tactical depth to his own 2-podium mountain record this season.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Del Toro's 78 climbing stat is backed by a 6.8 average position in mountain races with 2 wins and 3 podiums from 5 outings — impressive production for a young rider. UAE Emirates will likely ride for Pogacar, but del Toro has shown he can launch his own attacks when given freedom.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Ayuso's 79 climbing stat and 9.0 average position across 5 mountain races with 2 podiums underscore his credentials as a top-5 finisher on summit finishes. Lidl-Trek's multi-card hand with Skjelmose makes Ayuso a dangerous secondary option who can capitalize if Skjelmose fades.
Tobias
Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen sits at a 6.2 average finishing position in mountain stages with 3 podiums from 5 races — outstanding form for an Uno-X rider not burdened by team leadership constraints. His 78 climbing stat puts him level with several bigger names and he is quietly one of the best climbers in the peloton.
★
Ones to Watch
Martinez, Carapaz, Skjelmose, and Evenepoel are the outsiders with genuine upset potential. Martinez is consistent but lacks a recent win. Carapaz has the third-highest climbing stat (80) but only 3 comparable race starts. Skjelmose's broad skill set suits the Vosges terrain. Evenepoel is the most speculative pick, with only 2 similar-profile races logged, but his team support and improving climbing make him worth a dart.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Martinez has a solid 79 climbing stat and an 8.4 average position across 7 mountain races with 2 podiums, showing consistent if not explosive form. He lacks a recent win but his top-10 rate keeps him relevant as a stage-hunt option for Bahrain Victorious.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose's 79 climbing stat is complemented by an 80 hills score and a 10.4 average position across 5 mountain races, with a best of fourth. Lidl-Trek's dual-leader strategy with Ayuso gives him tactical flexibility to take risks on this Vosges finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Evenepoel's 78 climbing stat is well supported by his 84 time-trial score and 81 hills figure, and his 6.0 average position across just 2 mountain races shows potential despite limited data. His fourth-place best in similar races and Red Bull-BORA team support make him an intriguing wildcard on a finish that suits rouleurs-turned-climbers.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Carapaz brings an 80 climbing stat — joint third-highest in the field — and a best finish of third in similar-profile races this season. His race count is low (3 races) but his pedigree as a Grand Tour winner means he cannot be ignored on a mountain finish.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the runaway favorite with an 84 climbing stat and a 1.4 average position in mountain finishes, but Jonas Vingegaard and Florian Lipowitz are the only two riders with the form and engine to threaten him at the summit.