Stage 13 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 205.8 km from Dole to Belfort, classified as a hilly stage with a flat finale. The rolling terrain through the Franche-Comté region will suit puncheurs and GC riders capable of surviving hills before a potential sprint from a reduced group. With Belfort as the destination, French riders and breakaway specialists will be highly motivated.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Pogacar is simply in a class of his own on this terrain. His Hills rating of 83 tops the entire startlist, his recent form averages 8.6 across 8 hilly races with 3 wins, and he races for UAE Emirates — the strongest team present. Barring a tactical decision to save energy, he is the near-certainty pick.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar leads the startlist with a Hills rating of 83 and the best recent form of any rider in the field, averaging 8.6 across 8 hilly races with 3 wins and 4 podiums. He is the undisputed favorite for any hilly stage at the Tour de France.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Evenepoel and Vingegaard are the only riders who can realistically match Pogacar on a hilly day. Evenepoel's Hills rating of 81 and a recent win in similar conditions make him a genuine threat, while Vingegaard's Climbing stat of 83 — the best in the field — means he can hurt rivals on any uphill stretch despite modest recent form.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Vingegaard posts a Hills rating of 80 with a Climbing stat of 83, the highest in the field, making him lethal on any punchy or selective finish. Although recent form shows a 35.8 average, he is a Tour de France winner capable of turning it on when it matters.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Evenepoel sits second in the Hills standings at 81 and backs it up with a 15.2 average position across 5 similar-profile races including a win. His all-round ability and GC ambitions make him Pogacar's most dangerous rival on this terrain.
★★
Dark Horses
Grégoire, del Toro, and Skjelmose all combine strong Hills ratings (77–80) with encouraging recent results. Grégoire's 6 top-10s in 10 races and home-road advantage give him particular appeal, while del Toro's UAE support and Skjelmose's all-round profile make them credible stage winners if the big guns neutralise each other.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro holds a Hills rating of 79 and has shown real punch in recent form with 1 win, 1 podium and a 26.2 average across 6 hilly races. The UAE Emirates youngster benefits from the strongest team in the race.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose rates at Hills 80 and has been consistent across 9 similar races with 1 podium and a 31.6 average. The Lidl-Trek leader has the profile to animate a hilly stage with a flat finale.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Grégoire carries a Hills rating of 78 and impressive recent form — 10 races, 1 win, 1 podium, and 6 top-10s at an average of 26.0. Racing on home roads near Belfort, the Groupama-FDJ rider could thrive in a breakaway scenario.
★
Ones to Watch
Seixas and Baudin represent the best breakaway value in the field — both have wins in similar races recently and would thrive if allowed to go up the road. Pedersen offers a different angle: if the break is caught, his Sprint of 77 could be decisive on the flat run-in to Belfort. Lipowitz is the wildcard; his Climbing of 80 inside Red Bull-BORA gives him the tactical freedom to attack on the climbs.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Alex Baudin averages 26.3 across 11 hilly races with a win and a podium to his name, showing punch beyond his Hills rating of 76. He is a proven break specialist who could exploit any hesitation among the favorites.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Florian Lipowitz boasts the highest Climbing stat among the 2-star tier group at 80 and has recent form showing 1 win across 8 hilly races. If the GC battle fractures the peloton early, Lipowitz could slip into a dangerous move for Red Bull-BORA.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mads Pedersen's Hills rating of 76 is complemented by a Sprint of 77, making him one of the best-placed riders if the break is caught and a small group contests a flat finish into Belfort. He averages 30.5 across 6 similar races with 1 win.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Seixas has quietly put together excellent recent form — 8 races averaging 25.4 with 1 win and 2 podiums — backed by a Hills rating of 77. The Decathlon CMA CGM rider is an intriguing dark-horse pick for a late breakaway.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite given his Hills rating of 83 and dominant recent form, but Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard both have the credentials to challenge if the stage sparks a GC battle.