Stage 12 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 179.1 km from the Circuit Nevers Magny-Cours to Chalon-sur-Saône on a flat profile, making it a near-certain bunch sprint. With no significant climbs to thin the peloton, the pure sprinters and their lead-out trains will control the stage from the final 30 kilometres.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jasper Philipsen is in a class of his own based on recent sprint results, averaging 3.6 across 5 similar-profile races with a win, 2 podiums, and 5 top-10 finishes. His Sprint stat of 82 and the Alpecin-Premier Tech lead-out machine give him every structural advantage on a flat day.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Jasper Philipsen leads the field with a Sprint stat of 82 and the best recent form among all sprinters — averaging 3.6 across 5 similar-profile races with 1 win and 5 top-10s. He is the clear favorite for this flat stage into Chalon-sur-Saône.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Tim Merlier and Olav Kooij are the two riders most capable of upsetting Philipsen. Merlier owns the highest Sprint stat in the field at 83 and has 4 recent wins in similar races, though his inconsistency is a concern. Kooij is quietly the most complete package — Sprint 81, 1 win, 3 podiums — and Decathlon CMA CGM have the squad depth to deliver him.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij has a Sprint stat of 81 and has won 1 race from 5 similar-profile outings with 3 podiums and 3 top-10s, averaging 16.6. The Decathlon CMA CGM sprinter has the speed and the team to challenge on a straight run-in.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Tim Merlier boasts the highest Sprint rating in the field at 83 and has recorded 4 wins from 8 similar-profile races in recent form, averaging 19.0 — suggesting some inconsistency but enormous raw punch. He is a genuine threat to Philipsen if his lead-out lands him perfectly.
★★
Dark Horses
Biniam Girmay, Max Kanter, and Søren Wærenskjold occupy the second tier of likely winners. Kanter is the form rider with a remarkable 4.3 average and 6 top-10s from 6 races, while Girmay's podium record and Wærenskjold's raw power make both genuine threats for the final metres.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Biniam Girmay carries a Sprint stat of 79 and has been consistent in similar races, averaging 27.4 with 3 podiums and a best finish of 2nd from 5 outings. He remains a podium-level threat whenever the bunch sprint is organised.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Max Kanter is in outstanding recent form, averaging 4.3 across 6 similar-profile races with 2 podiums and 6 top-10s — the second-best average in the entire field. His Sprint stat of 77 slightly undersells his current condition.
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Søren Wærenskjold carries a Sprint stat of 78 alongside an impressive TT rating of 76, giving him the power to contest fast finishes from a long way out. He has averaged 11.1 across 7 similar races with 2 podiums, showing reliable top-end results.
★
Ones to Watch
Pavel Bittner, Milan Fretin, Mads Pedersen, and Phil Bauhaus are the outsiders with realistic top-5 aspirations. Bittner and Fretin have shown good sprint results recently, while Pedersen's versatility and Bauhaus's consistency give them a base to work from if the race dynamics play into their hands.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mads Pedersen brings a well-rounded profile — Sprint 77, Cobbles 80, Hills 76 — making him a threat in any bunch finish that is slightly disrupted or won from a small group. He averaged 11.8 across 4 similar-profile races though without a win recently.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Milan Fretin holds a Sprint stat of 77 and has been active, averaging 10.8 across 6 similar races with 2 podiums. He is a dark-horse option who could sneak into the top five if the main sprinters' teams neutralise each other.
Picnic PostNL
Picnic PostNL
Pavel Bittner has a Sprint stat of 78 and averaged 10.3 across 3 similar-profile races, but his limited sample size and best finish of only 5th introduce uncertainty. He is one to watch if the stage suits a powerful but less established finisher.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Phil Bauhaus has a Sprint stat of 78 and averaged 20.0 across 6 similar races with 2 podiums and a best finish of 3rd. He is a reliable top-10 performer for Bahrain Victorious who can threaten if he reaches the final with a clean lead-out.
Verdict
Jasper Philipsen is the top favourite, backed by the best recent form and an elite Sprint rating of 82, but Tim Merlier's superior raw Sprint stat of 83 and prolific win rate make him the most dangerous rival.