Stage 11 of the 2026 Tour de France is a 161.3 km flat stage from Vichy to Nevers, tailor-made for the pure sprinters who have survived the opening mountain stages. With no significant climbs on the profile, a bunch finish is the overwhelming expectation, setting up a fast and chaotic finale on the streets of Nevers.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jasper Philipsen is the consensus favorite for this flat stage. His Sprint rating of 82 is second only to Merlier on paper, but his recent form is unmatched — one win, two podiums, and four top-10s in four similar races, averaging 3.5. Alpecin-Premier Tech has a proven lead-out structure, and Philipsen has demonstrated he can win at the Tour de France.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Jasper Philipsen leads all comers with a Sprint rating of 82 and the best recent form of any sprinter in the field, averaging 3.5 across four sprint-profile races with one win and two podiums. His consistent top-four finishes make him the clear favorite for this flat Vichy–Nevers stage.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Tim Merlier and Olav Kooij are the two riders most capable of beating Philipsen. Merlier leads the entire field with a Sprint rating of 83 and three victories in seven recent sprint-profile races, while Kooij has shown winning form and a Sprint rating of 81. Both will need their teams to execute near-perfect lead-outs to overcome Philipsen's recent consistency.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Olav Kooij boasts a Sprint rating of 81 and has one win and two podiums in four recent sprint-profile races, underlining his ability to compete at the highest level in bunch finishes. His average of 20.0 masks a strong ceiling, and Decathlon CMA CGM should be able to deliver him in contention.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Tim Merlier holds the highest Sprint rating in the peloton at 83 and has three wins in seven recent sprint-profile races, with six top-10 finishes, showing elite finishing speed. His average position of 21.6 in similar races suggests some inconsistency in positioning, but on a pure flat stage he is a genuine threat.
★★
Dark Horses
Max Kanter, Søren Wærenskjold, and Milan Fretin occupy the dark horse tier based on strong recent results despite slightly lower headline ratings. Kanter's average of 3.6 across five recent races is extraordinary and suggests he may be underrated, while Wærenskjold and Fretin have both shown the ability to finish in the top two on similar stages.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Max Kanter has the most impressive recent form of any non-elite sprinter, averaging 3.6 across five sprint-profile races with two podiums and five top-10 finishes despite a Sprint rating of 77. His consistency in similar races makes him a genuine dark horse capable of threatening the podium.
Cofidis
Cofidis
Milan Fretin has shown steady sprint-stage form with two podiums in five recent similar-profile races and an average position of 11.0, despite a Sprint rating of 77. He represents good value as a dark horse who repeatedly finds himself in the front group at the finish.
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Søren Wærenskjold carries a Sprint rating of 78 alongside a standout TT score of 76, making him dangerous in high-speed finishes where power endurance matters. He has two podiums and four top-10s in six recent sprint-profile races, averaging 11.2, which places him firmly in the mix.
★
Ones to Watch
Biniam Girmay, Phil Bauhaus, Mads Pedersen, and Pavel Bittner round out the selection as outsiders with genuine pace but question marks over positioning, team strength, or consistency. Any of the four could punch into the top five if circumstances break right, but none can be backed with confidence ahead of the established sprint hierarchy.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Biniam Girmay has a Sprint rating of 79 and two podiums in his last four sprint-profile races, but his average of 33.8 across those races points to some inconsistency in positioning or team support. He has the raw speed to win but must rely on NSN Cycling executing a strong lead-out.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mads Pedersen rates 77 for Sprint but has the highest Cobbles (80) and Hills (76) scores in the top tier, suggesting he thrives when races are harder than pure flat sprints. His average of 11.3 across three sprint-profile races and a best of sixth shows he can place, though winning against a full sprint train remains a challenge.
Picnic PostNL
Picnic PostNL
Pavel Bittner carries a Sprint rating of 78 and is one to watch as a young fast man for Picnic PostNL, though his small recent sample of two races and no top-10 finishes in similar profiles suggests he is still finding his feet at this level. A podium is possible if the team can deliver him cleanly.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Phil Bauhaus has a Sprint rating of 78 and two podiums in five recent similar races, though his average of 20.4 reflects variable results. Bahrain Victorious will need a strong train to launch him, but his top-end speed keeps him relevant on a flat finish.
Verdict
Jasper Philipsen is the standout favorite given his Sprint rating of 82 and best recent form in the field, with Tim Merlier and Olav Kooij the likeliest challengers should their respective lead-outs fire perfectly.