Stage 10 of the 2026 Tour de France runs 166.6 km from Aurillac to Le Lioran, finishing atop a classic Massif Central climb on Bastille Day. The hilly profile rewards punchy climbers and all-round GC contenders, with the summit finish likely to split the peloton and shake up the general classification.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Pogacar stands alone at the summit of this preview. His Hills rating of 83 is unmatched in the startlist, and his recent record of three wins and four podiums in seven hilly races speaks for itself. Barring a mechanical or tactical surprise, he is the man to beat.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar leads the field with the highest Hills rating (83) and dominant recent form: 3 wins, 4 podiums, and an average position of 8.3 in similar-profile races. He is the undisputed GC leader and punchy finisher on a hilly stage like Le Lioran.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Vingegaard and Evenepoel are the only riders who can realistically match Pogacar over a summit finish of this nature. Vingegaard's climbing pedigree (stat 83) is the best in the peloton, while Evenepoel's aggressive style and strong recent form make him a constant danger on punchy terrain.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Vingegaard holds an 80 Hills rating and the highest Climbing stat in the peloton (83), making him a genuine threat on any uphill finish. His recent form shows improvement and he will be animated as Pogacar's closest GC rival.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Evenepoel's 81 Hills rating is second only to Pogacar, and his recent form includes a win and three podiums in similar races with an average position of 16.0. His aggressive racing style suits the punchy Le Lioran finale.
★★
Dark Horses
Skjelmose, Carapaz, and Grégoire represent the best of the chasing pack. Skjelmose has the raw ratings and youth to cause an upset, Carapaz's climbing experience gives him an edge on summit finishes, and Grégoire's outstanding recent form on hilly roads — boosted by Bastille Day motivation — makes him a compelling dark horse.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose has an 80 Hills rating combined with strong Climbing (79) and has registered a podium and three top-10s in recent hilly races. He is capable of attacking on the final climb and challenging the GC favourites.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Carapaz boasts a Climbing stat of 80 and a Hills rating of 78, with two podiums in six similar-profile races recently and an average position of 21.3. The experienced Ecuadorian thrives on summit finishes and could capitalize on any GC fireworks.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Grégoire's Hills rating of 78 is backed by the best recent form among the dark-horse contenders: an average position of 18.3 across nine hilly races with one win and six top-10s. Racing on home soil on Bastille Day adds further motivation.
★
Ones to Watch
Del Toro, Vauquelin, Lipowitz, and Riccitello are riders who could profit from the chaos of a race exploding over multiple climbs. Del Toro and Vauquelin have the ratings and team support, while Lipowitz and Riccitello have shown in recent hilly races that they can win from a breakaway scenario.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Lipowitz rates 77 on Hills with a standout Climbing score of 80, and his recent form includes a win in similar terrain with an average position of 30.1. He is a proven attacker who could feature in a move off the front.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro carries a solid 79 Hills rating and has shown he can win in similar terrain, though his average position of 28.8 reflects inconsistency. He is a UAE protected rider and a dangerous late-race attacker.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Vauquelin's 79 Hills rating and INEOS Grenadiers support make him one to watch on a hilly stage, though his recent average of 28.1 with no podiums suggests he has struggled to convert. A breakaway scenario could suit him perfectly.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Riccitello's Hills stat of 75 is lower than many rivals, but his recent form is eye-catching: one win, two podiums, and an average position of 25.4 in seven hilly races. He is a legitimate breakaway threat on this type of stage.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favourite given his supreme Hills rating, current form, and dominance in similar finishes; Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel are the most credible threats to deny him on the road to Le Lioran.