Paris-Tours is a classic autumn one-day race in the French heartland, renowned for its hilly parcours through the Touraine vineyards before the road flattens out into Tours for the finale. The combination of rolling climbs in the final kilometres — historically including the redoutable Côtes — that sap the pure sprinters, followed by a flat run-in, rewards punchy riders who can survive the selective hills and still deliver in a reduced bunch kick. This makes it a race suited to powerful all-rounders and classics specialists rather than either pure climbers or flat-out sprinters.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Jasper Philipsen stands alone at the top of the market. His hat-trick of wins in similar-profile races recently — stage 4 and stage 5 of the Renewi Tour plus stage 17 of the Tour de France — is unmatched in this field, and his ability to outsprint a reduced group after a hilly day is precisely what Paris-Tours demands. No one else in this startlist comes close to his combination of hills ability and finishing speed.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Jasper Philipsen is the standout favorite, having won stage 5 and stage 4 of the Renewi Tour as well as stage 17 of the Tour de France in similar-profile races recently — the best winning record in this field by a distance. His elite sprint and strong hills profile make him perfectly suited to a hilly race with a flat finish.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Dorian Godon and Paul Lapeira are the two riders who can most plausibly defy Philipsen. Godon's win in stage 1 of the Gran Premio del Lazio and multiple top-5 finishes in this type of race show he thrives on undulating terrain, while Lapeira's victory in stage 1 of the Coppa Agostoni and a succession of top-10s confirm his readiness for a day like this. Both sit among the very best hills riders in the field.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Dorian Godon arrives with a win in stage 1 of the Gran Premio del Lazio and multiple top-5s in similar-profile races recently, showing consistent form on this type of terrain. His well-rounded hills and sprint profile for INEOS Grenadiers makes him a genuine threat if the race comes together for a reduced bunch.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Lapeira took victory in stage 1 of the Coppa Agostoni and has racked up multiple top-10s in similar-profile races recently, showing he can deliver when the roads get lumpy before a flat finish. He leads Decathlon CMA CGM and sits among the highest-rated hills riders in the entire startlist.
★★
Dark Horses
Bastien Tronchon, Romain Grégoire, and Axel Laurance form a formidable Groupama-FDJ and INEOS trio at this level. Tronchon's Vuelta stage win and Grégoire's status as the top-rated hills rider in the startlist give the French team genuine options, while Laurance's consistency — four top-5s in similar-profile races recently — ensures INEOS also comes to the table with a meaningful card. None has converted that form into a decisive win on this profile recently, which keeps them a tier below.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance has recorded four top-5 finishes and a top-3 in similar-profile races recently, proving his consistency on hilly terrain even without a win to his name. INEOS fields a strong team and Laurance's hills profile is one of the best in the race, keeping him firmly in the mix.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Bastien Tronchon claimed a stunning win in stage 10 of the Vuelta a España recently and has shown consistent top-10 finishes in hilly races, making him a credible Groupama-FDJ option alongside Grégoire. His hills rating is among the best here and the team will have numerical strength.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Romain Grégoire is the headline name for Groupama-FDJ, carrying the top hills rating in the field and two top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently. He hasn't converted that form into a win in this context yet, but his sheer ability on undulating terrain makes him dangerous.
★
Ones to Watch
Alessandro Romele's remarkable run of three top-3s and six top-5s in similar-profile events without a win makes him the most intriguing outsider — a rider perpetually knocking on the door. Lukáš Kubiš, Mike Teunissen, and Jasper Stuyven round out the selection: each capable of exploiting a chaotic finale, with Stuyven's classics experience and Teunissen's recent top-3 form giving them credible paths to the podium if the favorites misjudge the final.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Alessandro Romele has been quietly excellent in this type of race, notching three top-3s and six top-5s in similar-profile events recently without a win — the most consistently placed rider who has yet to break through. An intriguing dark-horse pick if the favorites neutralise each other.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Jasper Stuyven is a seasoned classics campaigner whose cobbles and hills profile is ideally suited to a race like Paris-Tours, and Soudal Quick-Step will be motivated to send him on the attack. He has been less prolific in top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently but his race intelligence and experience make him a credible long-shot.
Unibet Rose
Unibet Rose
Lukáš Kubiš has delivered two top-3s and five top-10s in similar-profile races recently, showing he handles this terrain well even if the big wins remain elusive. His hills profile is solid and he could sneak into the final reckoning for Unibet Rose.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Mike Teunissen brings two top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently and a useful cobbles background that often translates to strength on hilly classics-style finales. At XDS Astana he will have freedom to animate the race if conditions suit.
Verdict
Jasper Philipsen is the clear top favorite off the back of three recent wins in similar-profile races and an elite sprint to close out a reduced group, with Dorian Godon and Paul Lapeira — both recent winners on comparable terrain — his most dangerous opponents.