La Polynormande Stage 1 covers 169 km from Avranches to Saint-Martin-de-Landelles, finishing atop a punchy hill that will sort the pure sprinters from the puncheurs. Rated 1.1, this is a prestigious one-day event that typically rewards riders with a strong Hills profile and the punch to contest a reduced-group sprint at the finish. The Normandy terrain ensures the race is unlikely to come down to a full bunch gallop.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Clément Venturini is the unanimous pick for top favourite. He leads the entire startlist in recent form for hilly-profile races (avg 12.9, 2 podiums, best of 2nd), and his Hills rating of 74 is elite. With La Polynormande seemingly a priority target given his schedule, he arrives motivated and in excellent condition.
Unibet Rose
Unibet Rose
Clément Venturini is the standout pick here: his Hills rating of 74 is among the highest in the field, and his recent form in similar-profile races is the best of anyone on the startlist, averaging 12.9 across nine races with two podiums and a best result of 2nd. He arrives focused and rested, with La Polynormande as his clear priority before the Deutschland Tour.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Paul Lapeira and Guillaume Martin share the field's highest Hills rating at 76, making both genuinely capable of winning on paper. Lapeira's three top-10s this season in similar races add credibility, while Martin's preparation for La Vuelta suggests he is close to peak form. Either could take the win if Venturini has an off day.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Guillaume Martin's Hills score of 76 is tied for best in the startlist, and his upcoming schedule — La Polynormande followed by La Vuelta — suggests he is in peak preparation. His recent form average of 58.0 in similar races is disappointing, but his statistical profile and pedigree on punchy finishes keep him firmly in the conversation.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Lapeira brings an elite Hills rating of 76 — joint-highest in the field — and has managed three top-10s in eight similar-profile races this season, with a best of 5th. His form average of 24.9 trails Venturini but his raw stat ceiling makes him a genuine podium threat on this hill finish.
★★
Dark Horses
Sandy Dujardin, Mathis Le Berre, and Jochem Kerckhaert form a solid second tier. Dujardin is race-focused with no other targets listed, Le Berre's combined Hills and Climbing scores make him dangerous on the finish climb, and Kerckhaert's fourth-best recent form average shows he can compete in this kind of race.
BEAT Cycling
BEAT Cycling
Jochem Kerckhaert's Hills rating of 72 and a best result of 10th in similar races make him a credible dark horse. His recent form average of 29.8 across five races is the fourth-best on the startlist, and he has a follow-up at the Grand Prix de Wallonie indicating he is in a strong racing block.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Mathis Le Berre posts a Hills rating of 73 backed by a solid Climbing score of 70, making him one of the better-rounded hilly-terrain riders in this field. His recent form average of 68.3 is modest, but he has raced actively this summer and the hill finish at Saint-Martin-de-Landelles suits his profile.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Sandy Dujardin has a Hills score of 73 and has posted two top-10s in five similar-profile races this season, with a best of 9th. La Polynormande is her only listed upcoming race, suggesting she is fully focused on this result.
★
Ones to Watch
Mikel Retegi's surprisingly strong recent form average (18.0) earns him the best outsider tag, though his small sample and zero podiums temper expectations. Maxime Jarnet, Thomas Champion, and Nil Gimeno round out the top 10 as riders who bring specific strengths — experience, climbing ability, or race intelligence — but lack the consistent results to be rated higher.
Van Rysel Roubaix
Van Rysel Roubaix
Maxime Jarnet has a Hills rating of 72 and the most experience in similar races (11 starts), though he has yet to record a podium and his best result is only 28th. His high mileage this summer could work for or against him on the hill finish.
Kern Pharma
Kern Pharma
Mikel Retegi's recent form average of 18.0 in similar races is actually the second-best on the startlist, though he has zero podiums from just four outings and his Hills rating of 72 sits in the middle tier. Worth watching as an outsider who could sneak into the top 10.
Kern Pharma
Kern Pharma
Nil Gimeno has raced 12 similar-profile events this season — more than almost anyone — with a best of 14th, giving him useful race intelligence. His Hills score of 70 and form average of 54.5 place him firmly in the outsider bracket, but he is a rider who knows how to stay in contention.
St Michel - Auber93
St Michel - Auber93
Thomas Champion's Climbing score of 73 is the highest in the field and marginally outpaces his Hills score of 71, hinting at real ability on sustained ascents. His form average of 65.2 and best of 48th in similar races make him a long shot, but the profile here gives him a chance to outperform his card stats.
Verdict
Clément Venturini is the clear favourite based on the best recent form in similar races and a top Hills rating, with Paul Lapeira and Guillaume Martin — both boasting the highest Hills scores in the field — his most dangerous challengers on the hill finish.