The Giro della Toscana – Memorial Alfredo Martini is a 1.1-rated Italian one-day race held on September 9, 2026, with a flat profile that heavily favours sprinters and fast finishers. With no climbs expected to thin the peloton significantly, the race is likely to come down to a bunch sprint or a small reduced-group gallop in the closing metres. Burgos BH arrive as the dominant numerical force in the startlist, well placed to control tempo and protect their lead sprinters.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Cavia Sanz is the standout pick on a flat day: he leads the field in sprint ability, rides for the most numerous team in the startlist, and has no glaring weakness for this profile. In a race that should come down to a mass or reduced-group sprint, he is the name to beat.
Burgos
Burgos
Daniel Cavia Sanz leads the field in sprint ability, a decisive edge on a flat profile where a bunch finish is the most likely outcome. With Burgos fielding a large squad, he benefits from strong numerical support to control the race and deliver him to the line.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Molenaar and Honoré both combine strong sprint with solid flat-race versatility and team support. Neither has recent similar-profile wins to point to, but both have the physical tools and tactical backing to challenge Cavia Sanz directly in the finale.
Caja Rural
Caja Rural
Alex Molenaar combines a sharp sprint with well-rounded flat and hills attributes, making him one of the most complete finishers in this field. Caja Rural have the numbers to set up a sprint, and Molenaar has the tools to capitalise if the group comes together.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Mikkel Honoré is a versatile rider whose sprint and cobbles scores are both comfortably above average, and EF-EasyPost regularly invest in positioning for their finishers. He's a reliable option if the finale is contested at pace by a select group rather than a mass sprint.
★★
Dark Horses
Gachignard, Pesenti, and Quartucci each bring a credible sprint and meaningful team structure. Gachignard has the widest recent flat-race experience; Pesenti and Quartucci are boosted by large, ambitious squads in Polti and Burgos respectively. Any of the three could sneak onto the podium if the sprint doesn't run perfectly for the favourites.
Burgos
Burgos
Lorenzo Quartucci is a Burgos teammate to the favourite, meaning his race could pivot from domestique to protected finisher depending on how the tactical situation develops. His sprint is among the best in this field, and in a scenario where Cavia Sanz is marked out of contention, Quartucci becomes an immediate fallback.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Thomas Gachignard has contested the most similar-profile races of any rider in the field over the past 90 days, gathering experience even without a podium result. His time trial and cobbles attributes back up his flat-race credentials, and TotalEnergies have the structure to deliver him late.
Polti
Polti
Thomas Pesenti is one of several strong Polti options on a day when the Italian team arrives with a large, well-coordinated squad. His sprint puts him among the upper tier of this field and he has the hills ability to stay in contention over any small undulations en route.
★
Ones to Watch
Kudus, Tiberi, Boichis, and Caruso are all intriguing outsiders whose profiles don't perfectly match a flat sprint but who could profit from a fractured or chaotic finale. Tiberi and Caruso in particular are riders whose cards punch well above this race's typical ceiling, making them spoiler threats rather than outright favourites.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Adrien Boichis of Red Bull-BORA has contested similar flat races recently and while results haven't come yet, he has the hills and sprint profile to be dangerous in a fast finale. Red Bull's organisation could give him a late platform.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Antonio Tiberi is the highest-rated card in the field by rarity, but his profile skews toward climbing and time trial rather than flat sprint, making him an unlikely winner here unless the race fragments. Worth monitoring if conditions favour a small-group finish.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Damiano Caruso is an Epic-rated rider whose climbing and time trial are elite, but on a flat stage his sprint lags behind the pure finishers in this field. His inclusion is a watch-and-see: if crosswinds or late attacks fragment the peloton, his all-round quality could count.
Burgos
Burgos
Merhawi Kudus is a well-known name on the Italian circuit and brings enough sprint and climbing versatility to survive any small selective moments. A surprise package if the race breaks up, though a bunch finish would test his top-end speed against purer sprinters.
Verdict
Daniel Cavia Sanz is the clear top favourite, boasting the best sprint in the field and the backing of a large Burgos squad; Alex Molenaar and Mikkel Honoré are the most credible challengers if the bunch sprint scenario plays out as expected.