Stage 1 of the Eneco Tour is an ultra-short 3.1 km circuit through The Hague, effectively a criterium-style opener that will come down to a bunch sprint or a small group finish. With a completely flat profile, the stage rewards pure speed, positioning, and a reliable lead-out train rather than climbing or time trial power. The brevity of the stage means there is little room for error — one mistake in positioning could cost a rider the stage entirely.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Tim Merlier stands alone at the top of this preview. His recent record in flat sprint finishes is exceptional — four wins in similar-profile races including major stage wins at the Tour de France and Tour of Britain — and his sprint is the strongest in the startlist. Barring a mechanical or positional disaster, he is the clear pick for stage victory.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Tim Merlier is the undisputed favorite here: the highest sprint rating in the field, backed by four wins in similar-profile races recently including stage 1 of the Omloop van het Houtland, stage 1 of the Kampioenschap van Vlaanderen, stage 2 of the Tour of Britain, and stage 12 of the Tour de France. With five top-3 finishes in similar races, he is simply operating at a different level to this field.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Dylan Groenewegen and Danny van Poppel are both proven stage-race sprinters with recent top-3 finishes in comparable races. Groenewegen's home-crowd motivation and Groenewegen's pedigree make him the most dangerous alternative to Merlier, while Van Poppel's consistency and strong lead-out setup at Red Bull-BORA give him a real shot.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Danny van Poppel brings solid recent form with two top-3 and three top-5 results in similar-profile races, and his sprint is among the best in this field. He is a proven finisher at this level and cannot be overlooked in a race tailor-made for fast men.
Unibet Rose
Unibet Rose
Dylan Groenewegen is the most credible challenger to Merlier, with two top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently and one of the strongest sprint ratings in this startlist. The veteran Dutchman will be highly motivated racing in front of a home crowd in The Hague.
★★
Dark Horses
Max Walscheid brings a recent stage win at the ZLM Tour and seven top-10 finishes in similar races, making him a reliable threat. Jason Tesson's win in the Tour Poitou-Charentes and Davide Donati's CRO Race stage victory show that both can find the top step on flat finishes — they represent the best value picks in this tier.
Red Bull Rookies
Red Bull Rookies
Davide Donati is an intriguing pick after winning stage 6 of the CRO Race in a similar profile — his only two appearances in comparable races both ended in the top 5. A promising talent who could thrive in the chaotic atmosphere of a short opening stage.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Jason Tesson has been active and productive in flat-profile races lately, including a win in stage 2 of the Tour Poitou-Charentes and six further top-10 finishes in similar races. He is an underrated option capable of catching the big names off guard.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Max Walscheid impressed recently by taking victory in stage 3 of the ZLM Tour and has three top-3 and four top-5 finishes in similar races, showing consistent punch on flat finishes. His time trial ability is also noteworthy given this is a very short opening stage, adding another dimension.
★
Ones to Watch
Tim van Dijke, Ethan Hayter, Gerben Thijssen, and Steffen De Schuyteneer all have genuine pedigree in flat sprint finishes but lack either the winning form or the raw sprint ceiling to be considered favorites. Any of the four could profit from a disrupted lead-out or a tactical race that blunts the top sprinters, making them worthwhile CycloDraft picks at a lower cost.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Ethan Hayter has a top-3 and a top-5 in similar-profile races recently and brings excellent all-round ability to a very short stage where positioning and nerve matter as much as raw sprint power. A capable operator who could sneak into the top results.
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Alpecin-Premier Tech
Gerben Thijssen has shown up in the top 10 of similar flat races and is an experienced finisher who knows how to navigate a bunch sprint. Alpecin-Premier Tech's team strength gives him a platform to compete.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Steffen De Schuyteneer has one top-5 and two top-10 finishes in similar-profile races recently and is one of the more undervalued sprint talents in this field. A short, flat opener in The Hague could play perfectly into his hands.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Tim van Dijke has one top-3 and one top-5 result in similar-profile races recently, and his well-rounded profile suits a flat opener. He adds Red Bull-BORA's tactical depth in the sprint and is worth monitoring as a dark-horse finisher.
Verdict
Tim Merlier is the heavy favorite: his dominant sprint, four recent wins in similar-profile races, and top-tier form make him the rider to beat. Dylan Groenewegen and Danny van Poppel are the most likely to challenge him, with Max Walscheid and Jason Tesson capable of causing an upset.