Stage 9 of the 2026 Vuelta a España covers 187.4 km from La Vila Joiosa to the summit of Alto de Aitana on the Costa Blanca, a classic mountain finish that consistently separates the GC contenders from the rest. The profile demands pure climbing ability and tactical awareness, with the summit finish rewarding those who can sustain power over the final ascent. At 187 km it is not a short explosive stage, meaning diesel climbers and well-paced attackers will be especially dangerous.
★★★★
Topfavoriet
Tadej Pogacar is in a class of his own heading into this stage. With a climbing stat of 84, an average finishing position of 2.8 across 9 recent mountain-profile races, and 6 wins in that span, he is the clear and dominant favorite for Alto de Aitana.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar leads the field with the highest climbing stat (84) and has been in scintillating form, averaging 2.8 across 9 mountain-profile races with 6 wins. He is the undisputed favorite for any summit finish at this Vuelta.
★★★
Sterke Kanshebbers
Felix Gall and Richard Carapaz are the riders most capable of challenging Pogacar. Gall's recent form average of 2.6 is actually better than Pogacar's on paper, and Carapaz's 80 climbing stat paired with 2 wins in 9 mountain races makes him a genuine podium threat.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Felix Gall boasts the best recent form of any rider in the field, averaging 2.6 across 5 climbing races with 1 win and 4 podiums. His climbing stat of 79 makes him a genuine threat to podium again on Alto de Aitana.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Richard Carapaz carries a climbing stat of 80 and has been consistently active in mountain finishes, averaging 7.4 across 9 races with 2 wins and 4 podiums. The Olympic champion thrives on climbs like this and cannot be overlooked.
★★
Dark Horses
Roglic, Skjelmose, and Johannessen represent a second tier of genuine contenders. Roglic's Grand Tour pedigree and 80 climbing stat are hard to ignore despite limited recent data, while Skjelmose's consistency and Johannessen's 3 recent podiums make them dangerous dark horses.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Mattias Skjelmose holds a 79 climbing stat and leads all active riders in race volume (11 climbing races), with a best result of 4th and 8 top-10s in similar profiles. He is a consistent performer who could surprise on this Costa Blanca ascent.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Primož Roglic has an 80 climbing stat and is a proven Grand Tour climber, though his recent form shows only 1 top-10 from 2 similar-profile races. The Red Bull-BORA leader will be looking to make his mark in the GC battle.
Tobias
Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen has a climbing stat of 78 and strong recent form, averaging 16.9 with 3 podiums and 7 top-10s across 11 climbing races. The Uno-X youngster has shown he belongs at this level and is a credible dark horse.
★
Ones to Watch
Almeida, Mas, Widar, and Kuss round out the selections as riders with the tools to surprise on a mountain finish. Almeida's 80 climbing stat is elite even if tactical roles may limit him, Mas races on home soil, Widar has shown shocking recent form, and Kuss brings championship-level climbing experience.
Movistar
Movistar
Enric Mas holds a 79 climbing stat and has managed 4 top-10s in 6 recent climbing races despite a poor average position of 23.0. Racing on home soil at Movistar adds motivation, and a strong day could see him challenge the top 10.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Jarno Widar has an exceptional recent form average of 4.3 across 3 climbing races with a best of 2nd, suggesting the young Lotto rider is punching above his 76 climbing stat. A stage like Alto de Aitana could be the perfect springboard for another surprise result.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida carries an 80 climbing stat matching Roglic and Carapaz, making him a latent threat even if his recent form data is limited. UAE Emirates has the luxury of two GC weapons with Pogacar leading the charge.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Sepp Kuss has a 79 climbing stat and solid recent climbing form with 1 win, 3 podiums, and 6 top-10s across 11 races, averaging 15.6. Whether riding in support of Visma teammates or freed for himself, he is a reliable top-10 contender.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite given his unmatched climbing stat and blistering recent form across mountain finishes. Felix Gall and Richard Carapaz are the most likely challengers, both carrying elite climbing numbers and proven recent results on similar terrain.