Stage 5 of the 2026 Vuelta a España covers 173.3 km from Falset on the Costa Daurada to Roquetes in the Terres de l'Ebre, classified as a hilly stage with a flat finish. The undulating roads through the Catalan interior will string out the peloton before a bunch sprint or small group contest is likely at the line. Teams with strong climber-sprinters and capable of controlling breakaways will be best positioned to dictate the finale.
★★★★
Topfavoriet
Pogacar is in a class of his own on this profile with a Hills rating of 83 and a proven recent record of 2 wins and 4 podiums in hilly races. His UAE Emirates squad is deep enough to control the race and deliver him into the finale in prime position.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar leads the startlist with the highest Hills rating (83) and has shown consistent form with 2 wins and 4 podiums in similar-profile races over the last 90 days. His all-around dominance and UAE Emirates team support make him the overwhelming favorite on this hilly stage finishing in Roquetes.
★★★
Sterke Kanshebbers
Roglic and Carapaz both carry Hills ratings of 78 and bring grand tour experience and climbing pedigree to a stage that suits them perfectly. Either rider is capable of going on the offensive if Pogacar shows any weakness, or contesting a select sprint at the flat finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Roglic boasts an elite Hills rating of 78 backed by an 80 in Climbing, making him perfectly suited to a punchy hilly stage. His Red Bull-BORA squad gives him strong support, and his grand tour pedigree at the Vuelta is unmatched.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Carapaz holds a Hills rating of 78 and has shown resilience in similar races with 3 podiums in 12 starts and an average position of 29.6 in hilly-profile events. He has upcoming races lined up suggesting peak condition and is a reliable threat on terrain like this.
★★
Dark Horses
Van Aert is the wild card with a flat-finish sprint threat to complement his climbing ability, while Skjelmose and Onley represent the next tier of climbers who can follow the favorites over the hills. All three have the team infrastructure and individual quality to claim a top-5 result.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose posts the second-highest Hills rating in the field at 80, and his Climbing of 79 confirms he is well-suited to undulating terrain. Lidl-Trek will likely ride for him as a GC asset, and he can be expected to feature prominently on the final hills.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Oscar Onley carries a Hills rating of 78 and is backed by INEOS Grenadiers, posting an average position of 24.3 in similar-profile races with 1 win and 1 podium. His recent form shows he is capable of top results on hilly terrain.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Wout van Aert carries a Hills rating of 77 alongside an impressive Sprint of 76 and TT of 79, making him dangerous on a hilly stage with a flat finish. His ability to contest a reduced-group sprint after climbs gives him a realistic path to the podium.
★
Ones to Watch
Bilbao, Nys, Laurance, and Almeida are riders with the physical profile to be present at the business end of the race, particularly if the stage plays out with a reduced group sprint. Each carries either a sprint edge or climbing capacity that makes them genuine outsiders for a stage win or top-10 finish.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance carries a Hills rating of 77 with a Sprint of 73, making him dangerous if the peloton comes back together on the flat run-in to Roquetes. His 14 hilly-profile races in recent form with a best finish of 3rd show he can deliver on this type of stage.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida posts a Hills rating of 78 and Climbing of 80, and as a UAE Emirates teammate he could be given freedom to attack if Pogacar is safely in control. His TT rating of 76 and overall consistency make him a reliable top-10 candidate.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Pello Bilbao has a solid Hills rating of 77 and a Sprint of 71 that could prove decisive if a reduced group contests a flat finish. He is confirmed to ride the full Vuelta and represents a genuine outsider threat.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Thibau Nys holds a Hills rating of 78 with a competitive Sprint of 70, and his confirmation for the full Vuelta signals his team's confidence in him on stages like this. He is an intriguing wildcard with the profile to animate the race.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the clear favorite given his dominant Hills rating and recent form, with Primož Roglic and Richard Carapaz the most dangerous challengers on this demanding hilly terrain.