Stage 4 of the 2026 Vuelta a España is a compact 104.8 km mountain circuit departing and arriving in Andorra la Vella. Despite the flat finish designation, the Andorran terrain guarantees significant climbing en route, favouring pure climbers who can also handle a sprint from a reduced group. The short distance could encourage aggressive tactics from the very first kilometres.
★★★★
Topfavoriet
Pogacar is in a class of his own here: a climbing stat of 84, five wins in eight recent mountain races, and UAE Emirates' collective strength around Andorra make him the near-certain favourite. Only a tactical mishap or exceptional form from a rival could deny him.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar tops the climbing stat at 84 and leads recent form with 5 wins in 8 similar-profile races, averaging 3.0 per finish. Starting and finishing in Andorra la Vella suits his explosive climbing ability perfectly.
★★★
Sterke Kanshebbers
Gall leads all riders in recent similar-profile form with a 2.4 average and four podiums, while Carapaz contributes two wins and four podiums from eight outings at an 80 climbing stat. Both men have proven they can challenge for the stage win when Pogacar is beatable.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Felix Gall leads the recent form table with an average of 2.4 across 5 climbing races, including 1 win and 4 podiums. His climbing stat of 79 puts him among the elite tier and his consistency makes him the strongest challenger.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Richard Carapaz posts a climbing stat of 80 and averages 7.2 in similar races with 2 wins and 4 podiums from 8 outings. His Grand Tour pedigree in mountain stages around the Andorra area gives him genuine podium credentials.
★★
Dark Horses
Roglic and Almeida share the 80 climbing tier but have limited recent data in this profile, while Skjelmose's remarkable consistency across 10 races and Johannessen's podium ceiling make all three worthy dark horses. Each could emerge if the race pace suits their strengths.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose holds a climbing stat of 79 and has shown remarkable consistency with 7 top-10s in 10 similar-profile races, averaging 9.9. His hills stat of 80 slightly exceeds his climbing score, making him well-suited to this mountainous circuit finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Roglic carries a climbing stat of 80 and is a proven Grand Tour champion, though his recent similar-profile sample is limited to one race. His class on Andorran climbs cannot be discounted despite the small recent dataset.
Tobias
Halland Johannessen
Uno-X Mobility
Uno-X Mobility
Tobias Halland Johannessen averages 15.6 across 10 similar races but has 3 podiums and a best of 2nd, showing genuine top-end potential. His climbing stat of 78 and hills of 77 are solid for a stage around Andorra.
★
Ones to Watch
Kuss, Onley, Landa, and Almeida round out the outsider group with climbing stats of 79-80 and varying recent form. Any of them could sneak into the top five if the race fractures in the final climbs and the big favourites neutralise each other.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida matches Roglic and Carapaz on climbing at 80 and brings UAE team support for Pogacar. He is a reliable threat if the race fragments and could capitalise on a free role.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Mikel Landa's climbing stat of 79 and experience at the Vuelta make him a perennial dark outsider on Andorran terrain. He has the engine for a surprise result if he rides his own race.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Oscar Onley carries a climbing stat of 79 and is a young INEOS climber building his Grand Tour profile. The Andorra circuit suits his ascending style and he represents strong value as an outsider.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Sepp Kuss has a climbing stat of 79 and averages 16.9 across 11 similar races, with 1 win and 3 podiums showing he can go deep. His role as team leader for Visma in mountain stages gives him genuine upside.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favourite given his dominant climbing stat and five wins in eight similar-profile races in recent form. Felix Gall and Richard Carapaz are his most dangerous challengers based on current form and climbing credentials.