Stage 5 of the Vuelta a Burgos covers 137 km from Caleruega to the hilltop finish at Lagunas de Neila, one of the most demanding uphill arrivals on the Spanish calendar. The hilly profile with a summit finish makes this a decisive stage for the overall classification, rewarding pure climbers and punchy all-rounders. Racing at 2.Pro level on August 8, this stage typically serves as a key tune-up for riders preparing for La Vuelta a España.
★★★★
Topfavoriet
Oscar Onley stands out as the favourite by combining a peak Hills score of 78 with the sharpest recent form in similar-profile races — a win, a podium, and a 24.3 average across just 6 appearances. INEOS Grenadiers have the firepower to control the race and deliver him for the final climb.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Oscar Onley tops the Hills stat at 78 alongside Ciccone and Mas, but his recent form is the strongest among the elite trio with a win and a podium in just 6 similar-profile races (avg pos 24.3). INEOS Grenadiers will back him as a genuine GC threat on this hill finish.
★★★
Sterke Kanshebbers
Giulio Ciccone and Mikel Landa both carry elite credentials: Ciccone has the race-finishing instinct on uphill arrivals and is in an active racing phase, while Landa's Climbing score of 79 makes him the most dangerous pure climber in the field. Either could overhaul Onley if the racing is aggressive from distance.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Giulio Ciccone matches Onley's Hills rating of 78 and is a proven finisher on punchy uphill arrivals, with Quebec and Montreal ahead suggesting he arrives in sharp form. Lidl-Trek have the squad depth to set him up perfectly.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Mikel Landa carries a Hills score of 77 and a Climbing score of 79, making him the best pure climber in the field on paper. Soudal Quick-Step will target the stage win ahead of his upcoming Vuelta a España campaign.
★★
Buitenbeentjes
Enric Mas, Felix Gall, and Ben Tulett form a compelling second tier. Mas and Gall both carry Climbing scores of 79 and are peaking ahead of La Vuelta, while Tulett's recent podiums and consistent form in hilly races give him an edge over the more established names in terms of current fitness.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Ben Tulett (Hills 76) has been one of the most consistent performers in similar-profile races recently, posting two podiums and a 22.7 average position across 7 races. His youth and current form make him a genuine dark-horse threat.
Movistar
Movistar
Enric Mas ties the top Hills rating at 78 and boasts a Climbing stat of 79, the joint-best in the field. Racing ahead of La Vuelta a España, he will be motivated to sharpen his form on this demanding hill finish.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Felix Gall holds a Hills score of 77 and a Climbing score of 79, identical to Landa's climbing profile. His Decathlon CMA CGM squad is well-represented at this race and he is heading to La Vuelta, meaning he arrives with fitness to burn.
★
Om in de Gaten te Houden
Jay Vine, Matthew Brennan, Carlos Rodríguez, and David Gaudu round out the top-10 as intriguing outsiders. Brennan's extraordinary recent win rate (5 victories in 15 similar races) is the standout statistic, while Vine and Rodríguez are quality climbers who could animate the race en route to La Vuelta. Gaudu's experience on Spanish terrain adds another unpredictable element.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Carlos Rodríguez (Hills 76, Climbing 77) is a quality climber building toward La Vuelta a España, and the Lagunas de Neila finish suits his profile. Two top-10s from 10 similar races (avg 36.4) suggest he can be a factor on a good day.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
David Gaudu holds a Hills score of 77 and is racing ahead of La Polynormande, suggesting he is in an active phase of his season. His sprint score of 68 is a useful asset if a small group contests the hilltop finish.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jay Vine (Hills 76, Climbing 77) is a powerful climber who has La Vuelta a España on the horizon, giving him strong motivation to race aggressively. His recent hill results show an average of 30.0 across 5 races, suggesting he hasn't been peaking but remains dangerous.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Matthew Brennan (Hills 75) has been prolific in recent weeks with 5 wins and 5 podiums from 15 similar-profile races, the best win tally in the form table. His Hills stat is slightly lower than the top tier but his current momentum cannot be ignored.
Verdict
Oscar Onley is the top favourite, combining the highest Hills rating with the best recent form among the elite contenders, backed by a strong INEOS Grenadiers team. Ciccone and Landa are his most dangerous rivals, while Enric Mas and Ben Tulett lurk as potential stage-winners.