Stage 5 of the 2026 Tour de Pologne covers 218.9 km from Opole to the Kocierz Resort, finishing atop a hilly summit that will shed the sprinters and reward puncheurs with strong climbing legs. The 2.UWT classification and demanding profile ensure the top general classification contenders and all-rounders will contest a selective finish. This is a prime stage for riders with high hills and climbing stats to shine.
★★★★
Topfavoriet
Andrea Bagioli is the clear top pick, backed by the strongest combination of hills stat (77), recent wins, and podium consistency across 9 hilly races. No other rider in the startlist matches his blend of raw rating and proven results in this exact profile. His Lidl-Trek team should provide solid support through the 218 km stage.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli tops the hills stat among in-form riders with a 77 rating and is the only rider in the top tier to have won in similar-profile races recently, posting a best finish of 1st across 9 hilly races. His consistent podium appearances (2 podiums, 3 top-10s) make him the standout favorite for this hill finish.
★★★
Sterke Kanshebbers
Christian Scaroni and Finn Fisher-Black both carry 77 and 76 hills ratings respectively, with multiple podiums in similar events. Scaroni's seven top-10s from 12 comparable races show he is reliably competitive, while Fisher-Black's recent 2nd-place finish confirms he can close the deal on a hilly finish. Either could take the stage if Bagioli falters.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Christian Scaroni carries a strong hills rating of 77 and backs it up with real results — 2 podiums and 7 top-10 finishes in 12 similar-profile races, with a best of 2nd. His consistency across a large sample of hilly races makes him a reliable contender for the Kocierz Resort finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Finn Fisher-Black holds a 76 hills rating and has shown genuine punch in hilly races, scoring a podium (best of 2nd) in 8 comparable events. His upcoming World Championships preparation suggests he will be racing with intent here.
★★
Buitenbeentjes
Axel Laurance, Neilson Powless, and Santiago Buitrago all sit at or near 77 on the hills stat and have the tools to animate the finale. Powless's recent win in a similar race stands out, while Laurance's consistent near-podium finishes and Buitrago's high climbing stat make all three credible threats. Any of the three could move into the top three on a selective day.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance rates 77 on hills and has registered a podium and 3 top-10s in 10 similar-profile races this season. Despite an average finishing position around 32nd, his high base stat and occasional podium threat make him a genuine dark horse on this finish.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Neilson Powless carries a solid 76 hills rating and has demonstrated real winning ability in similar races, recording a win and a podium across 5 hilly events. His recent form in this profile is among the best of any rider not at the top of the hills stat table.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Santiago Buitrago posts a 77 hills rating combined with a 77 climbing stat, making him one of the best-rounded uphill finishers in the field. He lacks recent form data in this window but his underlying numbers and Grand Tour pedigree support a dark horse tag.
★
Om in de Gaten te Houden
Paul Lapeira's average finishing position of 24.6 in hilly races is the third-best in the startlist, suggesting he punches above his 76 hills rating. Zambanini and Vlasov offer proven podium records with high race volumes, and Almeida's table-topping 78 hills stat reminds us he has the physical tools even if his focus may lie on the upcoming Vuelta.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Aleksandr Vlasov holds a 75 hills rating alongside a matching 75 climbing stat, suggesting he can cope with the final ascent to Kocierz Resort. He has recorded a podium across 15 hilly races this season and remains an unpredictable but capable outsider.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Edoardo Zambanini rates 76 on hills and has been active in hilly races, collecting 2 podiums and 5 top-10s from 14 starts. His high race volume and consistent results place him firmly in the mix as a stage hunter.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida leads the hills stat table at 78 and boasts a 80 climbing rating, giving him the best raw numbers in the field. However, his upcoming Vuelta listing hints his focus lies elsewhere, making him an intriguing but uncertain pick at the lower tier.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Lapeira averages 24.6 across 7 hilly races with a best of 3rd, giving him the third-best recent form average in the startlist. His hills rating of 76 is competitive and he has shown he can challenge for a podium on this type of finish.
Verdict
Andrea Bagioli is the top favorite, combining a 77 hills rating with a recent win in similar races and multiple podiums in this profile. Christian Scaroni and Finn Fisher-Black are the most dangerous challengers, while Axel Laurance and Neilson Powless could spring a surprise on the Kocierz ascent.