Stage 4 of the 2026 Tour de Pologne runs 176 km from Żagań to Karpacz, finishing atop a demanding hill climb that will shred any remaining sprinters and reward pure climbing ability. The 2.UWT status brings a quality field, and the uphill finale at Karpacz is one of the most selective finishes on the Polish calendar. Expect attacks on the final ascent to determine the stage winner.
★★★★
Topfavoriet
João Almeida is the undisputed favorite, combining the top Hills rating (78) with the highest Climbing score (80) in the entire startlist. His WorldTour pedigree and ability to control and attack on uphill finishes makes him the rider to beat on the road to Karpacz.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida leads the startlist with a Hills rating of 78, backed by a Climbing score of 80 — the highest in the field. A proven GC performer at WorldTour level, he is the standout favorite for this uphill finish to Karpacz.
★★★
Sterke Kanshebbers
Santiago Buitrago and Jan Christen both bring Hills ratings of 77 and strong climbing numbers, forming the chief opposition to Almeida. Buitrago is a specialist puncheur-climber, while Christen's all-round stats including TT ability give him the tools to stay with the best deep into the final ascent.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jan Christen matches Almeida's Hills rating of 78 with a Climbing score of 73 and strong TT legs (73), giving him a well-rounded profile for this terrain. The young UAE Emirates rider has shown promise in punchy finishes and can be a key support or co-leader.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Santiago Buitrago posts Hills 77 and Climbing 77, making him one of the best-rounded climbers in the race. The Bahrain Victorious man is capable of attacking on the final ascent and has the engine to contest a hilly stage finish.
★★
Buitenbeentjes
Bagioli leads this tier on the back of demonstrated recent form — a win and podiums across eight similar-profile races. Schachmann and Fisher-Black add experience and quality, with Schachmann's classics background suiting the punchy finale and Fisher-Black's recent podium in a similar race underlining his credentials.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli (Hills 77) is in excellent recent form with a win, two podiums and three top-10s across eight similar-profile races, averaging 17.8 in that sample. Lidl-Trek's Bagioli is a consistent threat on hilly finishes.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Finn Fisher-Black (Hills 76) has been active in similar races recently, recording a best result of 2nd and three top-10s in seven outings, averaging 32.4. The Red Bull-BORA rider's TT strength (74) also helps on punchy run-ins.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Maximilian Schachmann carries Hills 77 and TT 76, a combination well-suited to this hilly stage with a demanding uphill finish. The Soudal Quick-Step veteran is an experienced classics-style rider who can impose himself on a selective day.
★
Om in de Gaten te Houden
Scaroni, Powless, Lapeira, and Laurance round out the top 10 as riders with sufficient hill ratings and recent form to sneak into the results. Powless in particular arrives with a recent win in this race profile, while Laurance's sprint capacity could prove decisive if a small group contests the line.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance (Hills 77, Sprint 73) has featured in nine recent similar races with a best of 4th and two top-10s. INEOS Grenadiers' dynamic young rider adds unpredictability with his ability to both attack and sprint at a reduced pace from the final climb.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Christian Scaroni (Hills 77, Climbing 75) has six top-10s in eleven similar-profile races recently and recorded a podium in that span. XDS Astana's climber is a quiet but persistent threat on this type of finish.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Neilson Powless (Hills 76) scored a win and a podium from just four recent similar-profile races, showing sharp form. EF-EasyPost's all-rounder has the versatility to follow moves and contest the finish in Karpacz.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Lapeira (Hills 76) has a best result of 3rd in six similar-profile races this season, averaging 27.5. Decathlon CMA CGM's punchy rider can follow the best on a hilly day and has demonstrated form on comparable terrain.
Verdict
João Almeida, with the highest Hills and Climbing ratings in the field, is the clear top favorite to take the stage win in Karpacz. Santiago Buitrago and Jan Christen are his most credible challengers, while Bagioli's in-form showing makes him a dangerous dark horse.