Stage 9 of the 2026 Tour de France covers 185.5 km from Malemort to Ussel, classified as a hilly profile with a flat finish. The terrain is well-suited to puncheurs and all-rounders rather than pure climbers or sprinters, rewarding riders who can attack on the ascents and hold a gap to the line. This stage comes late in the first week, when fatigue is setting in and breakaways become more viable.
★★★★
Topfavoriet
Pogacar stands alone at the top with a Hills rating of 83, an average finishing position of 8.3 in similar races, and 3 wins from 7 outings. On a hilly stage with a flat finish, his punch and acceleration are unmatched in this field, and his UAE team will control the race to set him up.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Pogacar leads the field with a Hills rating of 83 and the best recent form of any rider in this field, averaging 8.3 across 7 hilly-profile races with 3 wins and 4 podiums. He is the clear favorite for any punchy, hilly stage at the Tour de France.
★★★
Sterke Kanshebbers
Evenepoel and Grégoire are the two riders most likely to challenge Pogacar directly. Evenepoel has the second-highest Hills rating and proven ability to win on this terrain, while Grégoire's 6 top-10s from 9 similar races show relentless consistency as a puncheur who excels on exactly this type of finish.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Evenepoel posts a Hills rating of 81 and sits second in recent hilly-profile form with an average of 16.0, including 1 win and 3 podiums from 4 races. His all-round capability and aggressive racing style make him Pogacar's most dangerous rival on this terrain.
Groupama-FDJ
Groupama-FDJ
Romain Grégoire carries a Hills rating of 78 and the fifth-best recent form average at 18.3 across 9 races, including 1 win and 6 top-10 finishes. The Groupama-FDJ puncher thrives on exactly this kind of hilly-but-not-mountainous finish and is a genuine stage threat.
★★
Buitenbeentjes
Skjelmose, Carapaz, and Lipowitz all bring Hills ratings of 77-80 and recent evidence of winning on similar terrain. Any of these three could gain time in a reduced group or succeed in a well-timed attack, particularly Lipowitz who has demonstrated a willingness to go from distance.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Lipowitz holds a Hills rating of 77 and a Climbing stat of 80, with 1 win and a best finish of 1st in similar-profile races over the last 90 days. The Red Bull-BORA climber is in form and could exploit any GC team hesitation to launch a long-range move.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Skjelmose boasts a Hills rating of 80 and has shown consistent results in similar-profile races, including a podium and an average of 32.9. His upcoming Vuelta targeting suggests he is in good form and will be looking for a confidence-boosting result.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Carapaz combines a Hills rating of 78 with the highest Climbing stat among the non-GC group at 80, and his recent hilly-profile average of 21.3 includes 2 podiums. He is a dangerous attacker on rolling terrain and has shown he can deliver on stages like this.
★
Om in de Gaten te Houden
Del Toro, Vauquelin, Healy, and Riccitello round out the selections as riders capable of featuring in a breakaway or a reduced sprint. Riccitello's recent form is particularly eye-catching relative to his rating, while Healy's attacking instincts make him a perennial wildcard on rolling terrain.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Ben Healy posts a Hills rating of 78 and is known for aggressive long-range attacks on undulating stages. He is an unpredictable wildcard who could animate the race for EF-EasyPost.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Isaac del Toro carries a Hills rating of 79 and has 1 win in similar-profile races recently, though his average position of 28.8 reflects inconsistency. As a UAE teammate to Pogacar, he may ride in support but could be given freedom if the race is controlled early.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Vauquelin has a Hills rating of 79 and 8 races of hilly-profile experience in recent form, with a best result of 6th. The INEOS Grenadiers rider is capable on punchy terrain and could factor into a breakaway scenario.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Matthew Riccitello holds a Hills rating of 75 but punches well above his rating in recent form, averaging 25.4 with 1 win and 2 podiums in 7 similar-profile races. The EF-EasyPost rider is a legitimate breakaway threat on a stage like this.
Verdict
Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favorite given his top Hills rating and dominant recent hilly-profile form, but Remco Evenepoel and breakaway specialist Romain Grégoire are the most credible challengers if the stage plays out with a reduced group sprint.