The Japan Cup at Utsunomiya is one of Asia's most prestigious one-day races, run over a hilly circuit that repeatedly tackles the Classica climb before delivering the riders to a flat finish in the city. The profile rewards punchy climbers who can survive repeated accelerations over the ascents and then hold their nerve in a reduced bunch sprint or late attack. With a field blending top WorldTour talent and Japanese domestic squads, the race typically explodes on the final ascents before concluding in a fast finale.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Van Eetvelt stands alone at the top of this preview. He leads the field in the hills category, won a stage at the Tour de Slovaquie recently in similar conditions, and has been consistently present at the pointy end of comparable races. There is no obvious weakness in his profile for this specific race format.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Lennert Van Eetvelt tops the hills rankings in this field and backs it up with genuine recent form, including a win at stage 3 of the Tour de Slovaquie plus multiple top-3 and top-5 finishes in similar-profile races over the past 90 days. His combination of punchy hilly ability and consistent results makes him the standout favourite for this Utsunomiya circuit.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Schmid and Healy both deserve their places in the top tier of contenders. Schmid's Tour de France stage win and multiple recent podiums on hilly terrain show he is in career-defining form, while Healy's status as a Legendary-rated all-rounder who has been quietly building top-10s in this profile suggests a big result is coming. Either could win.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Ben Healy is among the most complete riders in this field, rating at the very top of the hills category alongside Van Eetvelt, and he has registered three top-10 finishes in similar-profile races recently despite not yet converting to a podium. The Legendary-card EF leader represents a serious threat if the race comes down to a hard selective finale.
Jayco AlUla
Jayco AlUla
Mauro Schmid arrives with excellent recent form, headlined by his victory at stage 13 of the Tour de France and two further podium finishes in similar-profile races, confirming he is dangerous on punchy hilly terrain. His well-rounded profile — strong in hills, time trialling, and sprint — gives him multiple ways to win.
★★
Dark Horses
Oliveira is the form pick of the entire field having won twice at the Tour de Kyushu recently, but a moderate hills rating relative to the top favourites means he needs the race to play out in his favour. Delettre's extraordinary run of nine top-10s in similar races marks him as a persistent danger, and Buitrago's recent top-3 on comparable terrain confirms Bahrain's strength in depth.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Alexandre Delettre has been remarkably consistent in similar-profile events, amassing three top-3s, five top-5s, and nine top-10s without yet taking a win, suggesting a rider who has been knocking on the door repeatedly. A flat finish suits his sprinting ability within a reduced bunch, and he could finally convert that consistency into a result here.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Ivo Oliveira is arguably the hottest rider in the field on paper, having won twice recently — taking stage 3 and stage 2 of the Tour de Kyushu — making him the leader on wins in similar-profile races over the past 90 days. His hills rating is strong enough for this circuit, and his current momentum cannot be ignored.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Santiago Buitrago has elite climbing and hills credentials and registered a top-3 in similar-profile racing recently, confirming he can compete at this level when the course suits him. Bahrain Victorious will have options between Buitrago and Tiberi, giving the team flexibility in how they play the race.
★
Ones to Watch
Tiberi, Simmons, Matthews, and Dati each carry a realistic — if lower — chance of a top result. Tiberi and Matthews have the pedigree to challenge if the race fragments; Simmons has been a consistent top-5 threat in this profile; and Dati is the local dark horse whose recent form in similar races makes him more than a token domestic entry.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Antonio Tiberi has strong hills and climbing ability and collected six top-10s in similar-profile races recently, including a top-3 result, showing durable form over punchy terrain. He is a genuine wildcard who could capitalise if his teammate Buitrago draws the early attacks.
Jayco AlUla
Jayco AlUla
Michael Matthews is one of the most experienced riders in the field and posted a top-3 in similar-profile racing recently, and his sprint ability in a reduced bunch finish on this flat-conclusion circuit could be decisive. The Japan Cup historically suits punchers who survive the climbs, which fits his profile well.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Quinn Simmons has recorded four top-5 finishes in similar-profile races recently without winning, demonstrating consistent presence at the sharp end on hilly terrain. His well-rounded profile means he can contribute in breakaways or a reduced sprint.
Team UKYO
Team UKYO
Tommaso Dati is a local wildcard riding for Team UKYO who delivered two top-3 finishes in similar-profile races recently, punching well above his billing as a Rare-card rider. Racing in familiar terrain and motivated by home support, he is worth a speculative pick as an outsider.
Verdict
Lennert Van Eetvelt is the clear favourite, combining the best hills profile in the field with recent wins and podiums in exactly this type of terrain; Mauro Schmid and Ben Healy are the most credible challengers, each capable of matching him on the climbs or outsprinting him in a small group.