Stage 1 of the Tour of Istanbul covers 165 kilometres from Silivri to Çatalca on a flat profile, pointing squarely toward a mass bunch sprint to open the race. The 2.1-category event begins on September 3rd and will set the tone for the overall classification battle in Istanbul. With no significant elevation to split the field, the fast men and their lead-out trains will be firmly in control.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Giovanni Lonardi stands alone at the top of the pecking order. His recent stage win at the Arctic Race of Norway — a flat sprint stage — is the most concrete evidence in this field, and he has been consistently placing in the top five of similar races. With Polti's numbers behind him, he is the rider to beat.
Polti
Polti
Giovanni Lonardi is the standout favorite on this flat stage, having won stage 1 of the Arctic Race of Norway recently — proof he can deliver in bunch sprint finishes at this level. He also boasts the joint-highest sprint rating in the field and has racked up two top-3s and four top-5s in similar-profile races over the last 90 days.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Emilien Jeannière and Milan Menten both have the sprint credentials to challenge Lonardi. Jeannière has the joint-highest sprint rating in the field and recent top-5 form in flat races, while Menten brings Lotto Intermarché team support and proven speed. Either could take the win if the favourite stumbles.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Emilien Jeannière shares the top sprint rating in this field and has shown solid form in comparable flat races, registering a top-5 finish recently. The TotalEnergies team should be well-organized to set him up for a sprint.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Milan Menten is one of the stronger pure sprinters in this peloton and has been active in similar-profile races lately, demonstrating consistent speed. Lotto Intermarché has the numbers to support a lead-out for him.
★★
Dark Horses
Manuel Peñalver, Mirco Maestri, and Matys Grisel occupy the dark horse tier. Peñalver has a recent top-10 in a flat race, Maestri is experienced in sprint finales, and Grisel showed he belongs at this level with a top-10 result recently. All three need near-perfect circumstances to win, but any could land a top-five.
Polti
Polti
Manuel Peñalver has a top-10 finish in flat-profile races to his credit recently, underlining his credentials as a legitimate sprint threat. His sprint is among the best in this field and Polti has several riders who can contribute to a lead-out.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Matys Grisel has logged a top-10 in a similar-profile race recently, showing he can compete when the road is flat. He is well-suited to bunch sprint finishes and could surprise at this level.
Polti
Polti
Mirco Maestri is a seasoned campaigner with a strong sprint and has been active in flat races over recent weeks, even if results have been elusive. His experience in sprint finishes makes him a dangerous wildcard in a wide-open field.
★
Ones to Watch
Florian Dauphin, Michele Gazzoli, Nicolò Buratti, and Javier Serrano are outsiders worth monitoring for fantasy points rather than outright victory. Each has sprint ability sufficient to feature in a large bunch finish, and team dynamics or race chaos could lift any one of them into the top ten.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Florian Dauphin has one of the better sprint attributes among the TotalEnergies roster and could benefit from a strong team lead-out. He is one to watch if the stage comes down to a large bunch sprint.
Polti
Polti
Javier Serrano is a versatile rider with decent sprint and hills attributes, capable of featuring in a reduced sprint if the stage sees any late animation. His presence in a strong Polti squad gives him logistical support.
Solution Tech NIPPO
Solution Tech NIPPO
Michele Gazzoli has a capable sprint and has lined up in flat-profile races recently, giving him relevant match experience. A sprint finish in Istanbul would suit his profile.
MBH Bank CSB
MBH Bank CSB
Nicolò Buratti brings solid sprint ability and a well-rounded skill set to this stage, making him a credible outsider if the peloton arrives together. MBH Bank CSB has the numbers to support him late in the stage.
Verdict
Giovanni Lonardi is the clear top favourite heading into this sprint stage, fresh from his win on stage 1 of the Arctic Race of Norway and boasting the best combination of sprint ability and recent form in the field. Emilien Jeannière and Milan Menten are the most dangerous challengers, with Manuel Peñalver and Matys Grisel capable of gatecrashing the top five.