Stage 1 of the CRO Race covers 167 kilometres from Split to Seget Donji along the Croatian Adriatic coastline, classified as a hilly stage with a flat finish. The profile is likely to produce some selection on the undulating middle section before the road straightens out for the finish, setting up a reduced-bunch sprint between the best puncheurs in the field. At 2.Pro level, the race attracts a competitive mid-tier European peloton with several teams targeting stage wins from the very first day.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Paul Magnier stands alone at the top of our selections. Four wins in recent similar-profile races — stage 1 and stage 2 of the Tour de Slovaquie, stage 5 of the Deutschland Tour, and stage 1 of the Cyclassics Hamburg — is a level of form that no other rider in this field comes close to matching. His sprint at the end of hilly days is his primary weapon, and Stage 1 to Seget Donji is built for exactly that.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Paul Magnier is the standout favorite on current form, having won stage 1 and stage 2 of the Tour de Slovaquie, stage 5 of the Deutschland Tour, and stage 1 of the Cyclassics Hamburg in similar-profile races recently — a remarkable four victories. His sprint punch at the end of hilly stages makes him perfectly suited to this flat finish after rolling terrain.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Benoît Cosnefroy and Andrea Bagioli both carry stage wins in similar terrain from the past 90 days and are confirmed starters. Cosnefroy's win at the Coppa Sabatini and Bagioli's Tour of Austria stage victory show the ability to close out the right kind of day. Either could challenge Magnier if positioning in the final kilometres goes their way.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli is confirmed in the CRO Race startlist and claimed a stage win in stage 4 of the Tour of Austria in comparable terrain recently, adding a top-5 and two top-10 results alongside it. A strong hills profile and Lidl-Trek backing put him firmly among the two or three most dangerous finishers here.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Benoît Cosnefroy arrives listed among the CRO Race starters and brings excellent recent form in similar profiles, including a win in stage 1 of the Coppa Sabatini alongside two top-3 finishes and four top-5s. His all-round hills ability and UAE Emirates team support make him a genuine stage-win threat.
★★
Dark Horses
Rui Oliveira, Alessandro Fancellu, and Riley Sheehan each arrive with a recent win in comparable racing to their names. Oliveira is slightly constrained by UAE Emirates' wealth of options, while Fancellu and Sheehan represent genuine value picks from smaller squads who will ride with freedom. All three have shown top-5 consistency across this profile type.
MBH Bank CSB
MBH Bank CSB
Alessandro Fancellu claimed victory in stage 1 of the Giro d'Abruzzo recently — a race type very close to what Stage 1 here offers — and has backed it up with two top-3s and four top-5s in similar races. An intriguing pick from MBH Bank CSB who should not be ignored.
NSN Cycling
NSN Cycling
Riley Sheehan won stage 1 of the Czech Tour in recent similar-profile racing, demonstrating an ability to time finishes perfectly on terrain like today's. With solid hills ability and a sprint capable of outpunching attackers, he is a credible dark horse from NSN Cycling.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Rui Oliveira has been in fine form over similar profiles, picking up a win in stage 11 of the Volta a Portugal plus two top-3s and four top-5s. His UAE Emirates team is loaded with options, which could limit his freedom, but his personal record on hilly finishes demands attention.
★
Ones to Watch
Tim Wellens brings Legendary-calibre hills attributes and race experience, though his proximity to other scheduled races raises a small question about commitment here. Tim Torn Teutenberg has a win and strong results in this mould. Ilan Van Wilder and Antonio Tiberi are confirmed starters with the profiles to profit if the race is harder than a pure bunch kick — Van Wilder's all-round ability and Tiberi's climbing pedigree could both come into play.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Antonio Tiberi is confirmed for the CRO Race and has recorded three top-10 finishes in recent similar-profile races, supported by strong climbing and hills ability — among the best in this field. If the stage selects a smaller group on the hills, his climbing quality could prove decisive.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Ilan Van Wilder is confirmed in the CRO Race and possesses one of the highest combined hills and time trial profiles in the entire startlist. No comparable recent results are on record, but his Soudal Quick-Step backing and well-rounded ability make him a threat if the race is harder than a pure sprint finish.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Tim Torn Teutenberg took victory in stage 1 of the Philadelphia Cycling Class p/b AmeriGas ME in similar-profile conditions and has logged two top-3s and three top-5s in that same window. His puncheur sprint makes him dangerous if he can reach the final kilometer with the front group.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Tim Wellens is one of the strongest all-round hills specialists in the field, and while his recent similar-profile results show one top-3 and three top-10s without a win, his experience and Legendary rarity make him a rider to monitor. He is listed as upcoming for a different race, so his motivation here may be mixed.
Verdict
Paul Magnier is the clear top favorite after four wins in similar-profile races in recent weeks, with his punch on flat finishes after hilly stages perfectly matching Stage 1's character. Benoît Cosnefroy and Andrea Bagioli are the most dangerous challengers, each backed by wins in comparable terrain and strong team support.