Stage 3 of the 2026 Tour de Pologne covers 193.5 km from Gorzów Wielkopolski to Zielona Góra on a hilly profile that concludes with a flat finish, creating a complex tactical scenario. The undulating terrain will test puncheurs and classics-style riders, while the flat run-in could allow a reduced sprint among survivors if no early attack sticks. At 2.UWT level, top teams will be active throughout.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Andrea Bagioli is in the form of his career on hilly terrain, averaging 12.3 across 7 similar races with a victory already banked this season. His Hills rating of 77 and consistent top-10 presence make him the standout favourite for Stage 3. Lidl-Trek have a strong squad to support his ambitions into Zielona Góra.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Andrea Bagioli tops the hilly-profile form charts with a 12.3 average position across 7 similar races including a win, making him the standout pick. His Hills rating of 77 is among the best in the field and his consistency in this profile is unmatched here.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Neilson Powless and Finn Fisher-Black both combine strong Hills stats (76 each) with proven results in comparable races. Powless has a win and a podium in just 3 recent hilly outings, while Fisher-Black's best result of 2nd demonstrates genuine podium potential. Both represent excellent value at this tier.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Finn Fisher-Black carries a Hills rating of 76 and has been in solid form, averaging 29.8 across 6 similar races with a best of 2nd. The Red Bull-BORA youngster thrives on rolling terrain and is a credible podium threat.
EF - EasyPost
EF - EasyPost
Neilson Powless has a Hills stat of 76 and has delivered a win and a podium in his last 3 similar-profile races, averaging 21.7. EF-EasyPost will back him as a genuine contender on this undulating finish.
★★
Dark Horses
Christian Scaroni, Axel Laurance and Paul Lapeira all hold Hills ratings of 76-77 and have shown they can compete in the top 10 on this terrain. Scaroni's six top-10s in 10 similar races underscore his consistency, while Laurance and Lapeira add sprint and tactical versatility respectively. These three form a credible second tier of contention.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Axel Laurance holds a Hills score of 77 with a Sprint bump of 73, making him well-suited to a hilly stage with a flat finish. He has posted two top-10s in 8 similar races this season, showing steady improvement.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Christian Scaroni posts a Hills rating of 77 and has shown durability across 10 similar races, including a podium and six top-10s. XDS Astana will look to him as a key card on a stage that suits his puncheur profile.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Lapeira has a Hills rating of 76 and has racked up a podium and a top-10 in 5 comparable races, averaging 21.2. Decathlon CMA CGM will use him as a protected rider and he has shown he can mix it with the best on this terrain.
★
Ones to Watch
Almeida, Schachmann, Buitrago and Kelderman are riders with elite stats who carry uncertainty — whether through race scheduling, lack of recent hilly-profile form data, or team tactical considerations. Any of the four could produce a surprise result, and their card rarity and base ratings alone justify monitoring them closely.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
João Almeida leads the field with a Hills rating of 78 and is a Legendary card, though his upcoming Vuelta programme raises questions about commitment here. Still capable of a top result if given freedom.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Maximilian Schachmann brings a Hills rating of 77 and TT strength of 76, giving him the tools to be dangerous on a stage that could fracture the bunch. He remains a threat even without recent form data available.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Santiago Buitrago carries a Hills rating of 77 and Climbing of 77, making him one of the most complete riders for this profile. Bahrain Victorious could deploy him aggressively if the race breaks up before Zielona Góra.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Wilco Kelderman posts Hills and Climbing scores of 76 each, offering Visma-Lease a Bike a versatile option on a stage that may reward a late attack. His experience at this level adds value even without specific recent form in this profile.
Verdict
Andrea Bagioli is the clear favourite given his unrivalled recent form in similar profiles, backed by a win and consistent top results. Neilson Powless and Finn Fisher-Black are the most dangerous challengers, both bringing solid hilly-terrain stats and recent podium-level performances.