Stage 3 of the Tour de Kyushu is a 123.6-kilometre circuit race that departs and finishes in Miyazaki, classified as a hilly stage with a flat finale. The undulating terrain in the middle of the stage will test pure climbers but ultimately reward riders who can survive the hills and produce a sharp finish on the flat run-in. The 2.1 race class attracts a strong international field with several UCI-ranked teams, promising an aggressive and tactical day of racing.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Matteo Malucelli is the top pick on the strength of two wins at stage 3 and stage 8 of the Tour de Langkawi, both on similar hilly profiles with flat finishes. He has converted his ability to read terrain into victories at the highest level of this race class recently, and nothing in this field suggests his streak should end today.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Matteo Malucelli is the standout favourite here after winning stage 3 and stage 8 of the Tour de Langkawi in similar hilly-to-flat finishes, converting attacks into victories with clinical efficiency. Although his climbing is modest, his ability to read hilly terrain and finish strongly makes him the rider most likely to win when the road flattens out.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Alexandre Delettre and Tommaso Dati both bring genuine podium pedigree on this type of terrain. Delettre's consistency — two top-3s and four top-5s — across a larger sample makes him the more reliable bet, while Dati's efficient two top-3 returns in fewer races signals a rider peaking at the right moment. Both have the hills ability and the form to challenge Malucelli if the race fragments.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Alexandre Delettre has been remarkably consistent in similar-profile races recently, collecting two top-3 finishes and four top-5s, and he brings one of the highest hills ratings in the field. The TotalEnergies squad around him is strong, giving him real tactical flexibility.
Team UKYO
Team UKYO
Tommaso Dati has delivered two top-3 finishes in similar hilly-flat races recently, a small but highly efficient sample that speaks to genuine ability on this terrain. He is one of the more dangerous sub-leaders in this field when the race reaches the finishing circuits.
★★
Dark Horses
Baptiste Vadic, Jordan Jegat, and Kevin Vermaerke form a solid second tier. Vadic has demonstrated winning ability on similar terrain in Istanbul, Jegat is backed by a powerful TotalEnergies squad, and Vermaerke's top-3 and multiple top-10s in comparable races confirm he thrives in exactly this kind of racing. Any of the three could take the stage if the favourite falters.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Baptiste Vadic claimed a victory on a similar hilly profile at stage 1 of the Tour of Istanbul, demonstrating he can win when conditions suit. He adds a top-10 count to that win across a large body of recent comparable races, suggesting consistent form.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Jordan Jegat sits among the best hills-rated riders in this field and showed a top-3 finish in similar-profile racing recently. TotalEnergies' numerical advantage means Jegat could benefit from team-orchestrated tactics to set up a podium bid.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Kevin Vermaerke is well-rounded across the relevant stats for a hilly stage with a flat finish and registered four top-10 finishes in comparable races, including one top-3. His ability to stay in contention over the lumpy middle sections and then sprint from a small group makes him a genuine threat.
★
Ones to Watch
Luke Mudgway, Nicolò Garibbo, Matteo Regnanti, and Emilien Jeannière are all worth including in fantasy selections at value pricing. Mudgway and Regnanti each have a top-3 in similar races to their name, Garibbo has repeatedly sneaked into the top five, and Jeannière's sprint capability from a reduced group makes him dangerous whenever the race reaches the flat finish with numbers still together.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Emilien Jeannière offers a potent sprint out of a reduced group and demonstrated three top-10 finishes in similar-profile races recently. With TotalEnergies likely controlling parts of the race, he could be positioned perfectly for a bunch kick.
Li Ning Star
Li Ning Star
Luke Mudgway earned a top-3 in a similar-profile race recently and adds a useful sprint component to his hills ability, giving him multiple ways to get involved at the finish. His sample is small, but the quality of that top-3 result earns him a spot on the watch list.
Solution Tech NIPPO
Solution Tech NIPPO
Matteo Regnanti achieved a top-3 and a top-5 in similar recent races, an eye-catching return from a compact sample size. He is not the highest-profile name in this field, but his recent form on comparable terrain earns him genuine consideration.
Team UKYO
Team UKYO
Nicolò Garibbo has posted two top-5 finishes and three top-10s in similar-profile races, suggesting he reliably stays in the mix even if a win has eluded him so far. He is an under-the-radar option who could sneak into the top five if the race plays out in a reduced group.
Verdict
Matteo Malucelli is the clear favourite given his two recent wins on near-identical hilly-to-flat finishes, while Alexandre Delettre, Tommaso Dati, and Kevin Vermaerke represent the most credible threats to his victory.