Il Lombardia, the 'Race of the Falling Leaves,' covers 239 km from Bergamo to Como and is one of cycling's five monuments. The route features multiple punishing climbs — including the Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia — before a flat finish into Como, meaning a select group of climbers and puncheurs must survive the mountains and then contest a reduced sprint or late attack. The profile heavily favors riders with elite hills and climbing ability who can also handle a fast finale.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Remco Evenepoel has been in a class of his own across similar-profile races recently, combining elite hills ability with a devastating time-trial engine that lets him attack from distance or hold off any late surge. His five wins include marquee one-day events and a World Championship ITT, and no other rider in this field can match the breadth or quality of his recent palmares on this kind of terrain.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Remco Evenepoel is the standout favorite for Il Lombardia, having dominated similar-profile races recently with wins at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec, the Donostia San Sebastian Klasikoa, and the European Championships Road Race, racking up five wins and six top-3s in similar races. His hills ability ranks highest in this field and his time trial engine gives him a decisive late-race weapon on a parcours that rewards all-round strength.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Tom Pidcock and Giulio Ciccone both have the climbing credentials and recent form to threaten on the Lombardia parcours. Pidcock's consistent top-3 appearances and win in similar conditions show he is peaking at the right time, while Ciccone's local knowledge and eight top-10s in similar races over the last 90 days make him a persistent danger throughout the finale.
Lidl-Trek
Lidl-Trek
Giulio Ciccone has been quietly consistent over the past 90 days, posting four top-3s and eight top-10s in similar races without a win, suggesting he thrives in this kind of hilly one-day environment. Racing on home roads in Italy and riding for a strong Lidl-Trek squad, he has the climbing pedigree and tactical experience to be in the front group on the Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Tom Pidcock is a genuine threat, having posted five top-3s and nine top-10s in similar-profile races, with his win coming at the GP Industria & Artigianato. His hills and climbing ability place him among the elite in this startlist, and his record on punchy, selective terrain makes him one of the most credible challengers to Evenepoel.
★★
Dark Horses
Davide Piganzoli, Louis Barré, and Brandon McNulty form a compelling dark-horse trio. Piganzoli's Giro dell'Emilia victory is the single most relevant tune-up result in the field, Barré has been prolific in similar races with two wins, and McNulty's World Championships road race win proves he can execute in the biggest moments. All three have the form and team support to deliver a podium result.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Brandon McNulty claimed a prestigious win at stage 1 of the World Championships Road Race in similar-profile conditions, and his five top-5s in such races show consistent punch. His strong time trial and hills ability make him a versatile threat, and UAE Emirates will likely use him as a co-leader alongside Jan Christen.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Davide Piganzoli has been one of the most impressive performers in similar-profile races recently, winning the Giro dell'Emilia — one of the most Lombardia-adjacent tune-up races on the calendar — and stage 4 of the Tour de Luxembourg, with three top-3s overall. His Visma - Lease a Bike team infrastructure and his form on hilly Italian terrain make him a serious dark horse.
Visma - Lease a Bike
Visma - Lease a Bike
Louis Barré has been in excellent form, winning stage 2 of the Deutschland Tour and stage 6 of the Tour de Pologne in similar-profile races, translating strong hills and climbing numbers into real results. The young Visma rider is on an upward trajectory and could spring a surprise if the race breaks apart on the final climbs.
★
Ones to Watch
Giulio Pellizzari, Lennert Van Eetvelt, Jan Christen, and Paul Seixas are the outsiders most likely to feature if the race fragments. Pellizzari and Christen represent the next generation of Italian-terrain specialists, Van Eetvelt has the punch to attack on the final climbs, and Seixas's steady accumulation of top-5s in similar races suggests he is closer to a breakthrough than his lack of wins implies.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Giulio Pellizzari won the Giro della Toscana and stage 4 of the Deutschland Tour in recent similar-profile races, demonstrating real aptitude for hilly Italian one-day racing. His climbing ability is notably high for a rider of his age, and a podium appearance would not be a surprise.
UAE Emirates
UAE Emirates
Jan Christen won stage 5 of the Tour de Pologne in a similar-profile race and has been earmarked by UAE Emirates as a future monument contender on Italian terrain. Still young but highly rated, he is one to watch on a course that suits riders who can climb and follow accelerations.
Lotto Intermarché
Lotto Intermarché
Lennert Van Eetvelt secured a win at stage 3 of the Tour de Slovaquie in similar conditions and has shown two top-3s in this race profile type. He is a rider who can punch above his seeding on the right day, especially if Lotto Intermarché can keep him protected into the finale.
Decathlon CMA CGM
Decathlon CMA CGM
Paul Seixas has quietly built three top-3s and four top-5s in similar-profile races without a win, suggesting he is capable of mixing it with the best on this terrain. If Decathlon CMA CGM orchestrates the race around him, an unexpected top-five is within reach.
Verdict
Remco Evenepoel, fresh off five wins in similar-profile races, enters as the clear favorite and must be beaten. Tom Pidcock and Giulio Ciccone are his most dangerous challengers, while Davide Piganzoli's Giro dell'Emilia win makes him the pick of the dark horses.