The Gran Premio del Lazio is a one-day 1.1 race covering 182 km from the thermal resort of Fiuggi to Anguillara Sabazia on the shores of Lake Bracciano. The hilly profile through the hills of Lazio will put pressure on pure sprinters, but the flat run-in to the finish means a reduced group with sprint ability has a chance to contest the win. This sets up a contest between puncheurs, all-rounders, and fast finishers who can survive a selective parcours.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Dorian Godon stands alone at the top on the strength of two top-3s and two top-5s in similar-profile races over the last 90 days — comfortably the best such record in this field. His hills ability is among the finest in the startlist, and INEOS Grenadiers have the numbers to dictate the race. He arrives at the race without a win to point to, but the consistency and quality of his recent performances make him the clear favourite.
INEOS Grenadiers
INEOS Grenadiers
Dorian Godon is the standout pick for this hilly finale: he has two top-3s and two top-5s in similar-profile races over the past 90 days, the strongest podium record in this field. His hills profile is among the very best in the startlist, and INEOS Grenadiers provide the team muscle to control a selective race.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Alexandre Delettre and Andrea Vendrame share the three-star tier as the two most credible challengers. Delettre's haul of a top-3, three top-5s, and six top-10s on similar terrain is remarkable for its volume and quality, while Vendrame's top-5 and Jayco AlUla's team strength give him every chance to contest the finale. Both riders have specifically targeted this race and arrive in sharp condition.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Alexandre Delettre has been one of the busiest and most effective riders on this kind of terrain recently, banking a top-3, three top-5s, and six top-10s in similar races. His hills ability is right at the top of the field and he has targeted this race specifically in his upcoming schedule.
Jayco AlUla
Jayco AlUla
Andrea Vendrame brings a top-5 and two top-10s on similar profiles in recent weeks, showing he is in form for exactly this type of finish. His hills and sprint combination makes him dangerous in a reduced bunch or small-group sprint, and Jayco AlUla can work collectively to set him up.
★★
Dark Horses
Mathieu Burgaudeau, Giovanni Lonardi, and Stefano Oldani form a competitive second tier. Lonardi is the only rider in the field to have won on a similar profile recently — his stage 2 victory at the Tour of Istanbul marks him as a genuine threat — while Burgaudeau's four top-10s and Oldani's consistent presence across 16 similar races underline their credentials. All three can sprint if the finale comes down to a small group.
Polti
Polti
Giovanni Lonardi is the only rider in this field with a win on a similar profile in the last 90 days, taking stage 2 of the Tour of Istanbul. Despite a hills profile slightly below the top names, that victory and three top-5s demonstrate he knows how to time a move in punchy finales.
TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies
Mathieu Burgaudeau has a top-5 and four top-10s on hilly terrain in the past 90 days, making him a reliable presence in finales like Anguillara Sabazia. His hills suit this course well, and TotalEnergies can count on Delettre and Delbove to share the workload.
Caja Rural
Caja Rural
Stefano Oldani has been consistently present in similar races, recording two top-10s and 16 starts on this type of terrain in recent months. His hills and sprint combination fits a hilly race with a flat finish, and Caja Rural will look to him as a key card.
★
Ones to Watch
Luke Plapp, Nicola Conci, Alessandro Covi, and Clément Champoussin are the four outsiders to watch. Plapp's all-round ability and a recent similar-profile top-10 make him dangerous in a selective finish; Conci and Covi benefit from team numbers and have recent top-10s of their own. Champoussin heads the hills rankings for this startlist and has marked this race as a target — if conditions suit an attacker, he could spring a surprise.
Jayco AlUla
Jayco AlUla
Alessandro Covi brings a top-10 on a comparable profile and is a natural attacker on hilly terrain, making him a threat if the race splits before the flat finale. Jayco AlUla's strength in numbers means Covi could be given license to go on the road.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Clément Champoussin leads the startlist in hills ability and has specifically targeted this race in his upcoming programme. He has no standout recent similar-profile results to cite, but his raw suitability to the terrain and XDS Astana's deep roster keep him firmly in the mix as an outsider.
Jayco AlUla
Jayco AlUla
Luke Plapp is one of the most complete riders in this field — strong on hills and against the clock — and has a top-10 on a similar profile recently. He is perhaps slightly better suited to longer punishing efforts, but his versatility makes him a genuine outsider for a reduced-group finish.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Nicola Conci has posted two top-10s on similar terrain recently and is well supported within XDS Astana, a squad with multiple cards in this race. His hills profile is competitive in this field and he could profit if teammates Champoussin or Velasco animate the finale.
Verdict
Dorian Godon is the top favourite, backed by the best recent form on similar terrain in the field and strong INEOS Grenadiers support; Alexandre Delettre and Andrea Vendrame are the principal threats, each with meaningful podium form over the past 90 days.