The Giro dell'Emilia is a classic Italian one-day race covering 197.9 kilometres from Ferrara to Bologna, concluding with the legendary climb to the Sanctuary of the Madonna di San Luca — a steep, winding ascent that consistently shreds the field and rewards pure puncheurs and climbers. The race is a 1.Pro event and serves as a key appointment in the Italian autumn classics calendar, drawing a field of specialist hilly-terrain riders. With no flat sprint finish to speak of, only those with genuine climbing punch will be fighting for victory at the top of the San Luca.
★★★★
Top Favorite
Giulio Pellizzari stands alone at the top of our rankings. His wins in stage 1 of the Giro della Toscana and stage 4 of the Deutschland Tour on hilly terrain, combined with further podium finishes and a climbing ability that ranks among the elite in this field, make him the most rounded and in-form candidate for victory on the San Luca. No other rider in this startlist has matched his combination of raw suitability and recent results on this exact type of course.
Red Bull - BORA
Red Bull - BORA
Giulio Pellizzari is the standout favorite heading into Bologna, having won stage 1 of the Giro della Toscana and stage 4 of the Deutschland Tour in similar-profile races recently, adding two further top-3 finishes on hilly terrain. His climbing ability is among the best in this field and his recent form on comparable courses is simply unmatched by anyone else in the startlist.
★★★
Strong Contenders
Tom Pidcock and Pepijn Reinderink both earn three-star status on the strength of recent wins in similar-profile races. Pidcock's victory in stage 1 of the GP Industria & Artigianato and eight top-10 finishes on hilly terrain reflect his consistent high level, while Reinderink's win in stage 3 of the Tour de Luxembourg and two podium finishes show he is genuinely dangerous on days like this. Both are capable of challenging Pellizzari if conditions favour a small-group or individual finish.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Pepijn Reinderink has quietly put together an impressive recent run on hilly courses, including a win in stage 3 of the Tour de Luxembourg and a second top-3 finish, making him a genuine dark horse elevated to contender status. Despite being a lesser-known name, his recent results on this profile cannot be ignored.
Pinarello-Q36.5
Pinarello-Q36.5
Tom Pidcock brings top-tier hills ability and has been consistently competitive on similar terrain, recording a win in stage 1 of the GP Industria & Artigianato alongside three top-3 finishes and eight top-10s in comparable recent races. He is one of the most complete puncheurs in the field and a clear threat on the San Luca finale.
★★
Dark Horses
Alessandro Fancellu, Andrea Raccagni Noviero, and Mikel Landa occupy the dark-horse tier. Fancellu's win in stage 1 of the Giro d'Abruzzo and further top-5 appearances mark him as a legitimate threat, while Raccagni Noviero's consistent top-5 returns suggest a rider peaking at the right time. Landa brings decades of experience and specific race targeting that could unlock a performance above his recent results on hilly terrain.
MBH Bank CSB
MBH Bank CSB
Alessandro Fancellu won stage 1 of the Giro d'Abruzzo on a hilly profile recently and added two further top-5 finishes, suggesting he is well-suited to races of this type. His hills ability is solid within this field and he has shown he can deliver when it matters on similar terrain.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Andrea Raccagni Noviero has a top-3 and two top-5 finishes in similar-profile races recently, demonstrating consistent competitiveness even without a win. He is a reliable finisher on hilly courses and could benefit from Soudal Quick-Step's strong squad presence in this race.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Mikel Landa is one of the most experienced climbers in this field and a confirmed starter with a specific racing program that includes Giro dell'Emilia, suggesting he is arriving with purpose. While his recent similar-profile results have not yielded top finishes, his pedigree and climbing ability on demanding finishes like San Luca keep him in the mix.
★
Ones to Watch
Lorenzo Fortunato, Steff Cras, Filippo Zana, and Damiano Caruso round out our selection as riders to watch rather than confident picks. All four have the climbing or hills profile to cope with the San Luca, but their recent similar-course results have been limited. Any of them could animate the race or benefit from a reduced group, but they would need something close to a career-best day to overhaul the riders ranked above them.
Bahrain Victorious
Bahrain Victorious
Damiano Caruso is a seasoned climber with a high climbing ability relative to this field and brings experience of Italian terrain, but his recent results on similar courses have been blank. He is best viewed as a rider capable of animated racing rather than a podium certainty.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Filippo Zana is an Italian puncheur who fits the profile of this race well and has solid hills credentials, though his recent similar-profile results have amounted to just one top-10. A home race on familiar Emilian roads could spark a better showing than his recent form suggests.
XDS Astana
XDS Astana
Lorenzo Fortunato has strong climbing credentials and is well-suited to a finish atop the Madonna di San Luca, though he has not converted that into results on comparable terrain recently. He remains a rider capable of surprising on the right day given his natural profile for this course.
Soudal Quick-Step
Soudal Quick-Step
Steff Cras is a capable hills rider who is specifically scheduled for this race as part of a targeted autumn programme, and his hills ability is among the higher-rated in the field. A single top-10 in similar recent races tempers expectations, but he could outperform his recent returns with fresh legs.
Verdict
Giulio Pellizzari enters as the clear top favourite on the back of two recent wins and consistent top finishes on comparable terrain, while Tom Pidcock and Pepijn Reinderink — both proven winners on similar courses this season — represent the most credible threats to his victory.